RBI Meeting Begins: Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting has started from Monday. The meeting will run from 7 to 9 April, and on Wednesday, RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra will announce the decisions of the meeting. In this, along with the decision on the repo rate, important information on the economic situation of the country will be shared.
Repo rate reduction estimatesExpectation of fall in inflation
Repo rate reduction estimates
According to SBI Research report, RBI can cut the repo rate by 25 basis points in this meeting. The rate cut bicycle started from February 2026 is likely to reduce a total of 100 basis points. The report states that the repo rate may be reduced by 100 basis points between February to March 2026, while EBLR is also possible to cut equal cuts and 60 basis points in MCLR.
Expectation of fall in inflation
According to the report, the retail inflation rate may decrease to 3.8 percent in the fourth quarter of FY 2025, while the average inflation rate of the entire year is estimated at 4.6 percent. The average retail inflation rate in FY 2026 is expected to be between 3.9 to 4.0 percent and the main inflation rate is between 4.2 to 4.3 percent. The headline inflation will remain down till September/October, but after that it may increase.
SBI Research warned that reciperook tariffs imposed on many countries by the US may increase the risk of dumping in India, which may affect inflation. Despite this, the liquidity is expected to remain surplus in FY 2026. It will be supported by factors such as OMO procurement, Dividend Transfer of RBI and Balance of Payment (BOP) surplus of $ 25-30 billion.
