Rahul Gandhi
Rahul Gandhi chose to remain an MP from Rae Bareli and left the Wayanad seat in Kerala. Also, a decision was taken to field Priyanka Gandhi in the Wayanad by-election. However, this time Rahul Gandhi has won both the seats in the Lok Sabha elections 2024 with a good margin. Since then, people are curious to know why Rahul left the seat which made him an MP in 2019. Let’s understand…..
Sharp political message
Since the Modi wave in 2014, Congress has been investing all its money on Rahul Gandhi. After this, this year’s Bharat Jodo Yatra gave the Congress the strength that it is able to win the trust of the people. In such a situation, Rahul Gandhi choosing Rae Bareli instead of Wayanad in Kerala indicates the party’s strategy. Encouraged by the election results, Congress is now showing a more aggressive stance against the government. 2024 is just a strong and sharp political message. Congress actually wants to make better use of the time till the 2029 elections. Let us tell you that Narendra Modi’s government is currently dependent on the alliance, in such a situation Congress is considering it weak and will try its best to attack the government by sitting both Rahul and Priyanka Gandhi on the opposition bench.
Confidence came in Congress
The 2024 Lok Sabha elections have given the Congress the confidence that it is capable of competing with the BJP in a direct fight. You can understand the analysis of Congress’s direct contests from these figures, how the Congress was reduced to 44 seats in 2014, then from 52 in 2019, it almost doubled its number of seats to 99 in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
Let us understand through 5 factors why Rahul Gandhi chose UP’s Rae Bareli Lok Sabha seat instead of Kerala’s Wayanad…
1) BSP hopes to regain lost ground through vote base
In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the Congress won six seats in UP. In 2019, it had won only the Rae Bareli seat. As of now, the India Block won 43 seats, of which 36 were won by the Samajwadi Party. This was a big setback for the NDA, which had won 62 of the 80 Lok Sabha seats in UP in 2019. In the 2024 elections, the NDA managed to win only 36 seats, while the BJP secured 33 seats. The biggest loser in terms of vote share was the Mayawati-led Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP). Its vote share fell from 19% to 9%, a drop of 10 percentage points. These votes went mainly to the Samajwadi Party, but also to the Congress. If the SP captured BSP’s 6-7% vote share, the Congress gained 2-3%. The Congress hopes to take advantage of the swing in Dalit, Muslim and Brahmin votes in Uttar Pradesh. The ray of hope is that Rahul Gandhi has chosen UP’s Rae Bareli seat instead of Kerala’s Wayanad. Whereas in 2019, Rahul Gandhi reached the Parliament from Wayanad itself, because he lost to BJP’s Smriti Irani from Amethi.
2) Changing strategy and adopting an aggressive stance
Encouraged by the results of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the Congress has changed its stance. Rahul Gandhi retaining the Rae Bareli seat and leaving the Wayanad seat is a clear indication of this aggressive stance that the change in strategy has now become aggressive rather than defensive. After the Amethi defeat in 2019, the Wayanad seat was a defensive approach. At the same time, it is the election results of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections in Uttar Pradesh that made Rahul Gandhi choose Rae Bareli instead of Wayanad in Kerala. It was their old strategy to keep Rahul Gandhi south from Wayanad and sister Priyanka north and the results of this Lok Sabha election have changed it. In such a situation, the good performance of the Congress in Maharashtra, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh has raised hopes for the Congress and this is why their stance has changed. Whether this will be effective or not, only time will tell.
3) To revive Congress, it is necessary to win in Uttar Pradesh
You must have often heard people saying that the way to power in Delhi goes through Uttar Pradesh. Therefore, when regional parties started making inroads into the vote bank of Congress, the first thing that was seen was the decline in the strength of Congress in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. Its hold in Delhi also started weakening. In such a situation, to revive the Congress completely, it will have to win in Uttar Pradesh. 6 seats in UP, although with the support of Samajwadi Party, are a sign of green signal for Congress. Another good sign for Congress is that despite Jat leader Jayant Chaudhary and his Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) in the NDA camp, Jat voters in UP and Haryana are also seen towards Congress.
4) If you want to win hearts, you have to win the heartland
To win hearts, the Congress must win the heartland. This is where it will have to take on the BJP, both alone and in alliance with regional allies. The Congress needs to win the nine heartland states because they send 218 of the 543 Lok Sabha MPs. Among the heartland states, the Congress has performed better in Uttar Pradesh as well as Haryana and Rajasthan. The Congress is capitalising on its chances in the Hindi heartland and that is why the biggest contender for the tie, Rahul Gandhi, is being projected from Uttar Pradesh. By winning more seats in UP, the Congress can also hope to gain influence in Bihar, where it is in alliance with the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD). The Hindi heartland states are called the heartland.
5) Safe bet for Priyanka
Kerala will have assembly elections in 2026 and most likely, this election will go in Congress’ favour. The state, which has been leaning either in favour of the CPM-led LDF or the Congress-led UDF, surprised most political pundits by bringing the LDF back to power in 2021. However, the CPI(M) fared poorly in the Lok Sabha elections and won just one seat. On the other hand, the Congress won 14 out of 20 Lok Sabha seats, while its ally IUML won two seats. The Congress is confident that Kerala, whether Rahul Gandhi retains Wayanad or not, is the party’s to win in 2026. Also, Priyanka Gandhi taking charge will also give a boost to the Congress campaign. Let us tell you that Priyanka Gandhi Vadra has campaigned extensively for the party. Political pundits believe that Priyanka’s presence in Wayanad is expected to help the party there too.
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