Millions of cases of corona are still coming in the world every day, but now the world has stopped fearing. Many countries have also stopped its investigation. The requirement of masks is being removed as well as some countries are not in favor of continuing the five-day isolation for corona patients. The third wave has been relatively less lethal in India, which has seen heavy destruction in two waves. Economic activities have opened up in the country, vaccination against Corona is going on on a war footing, but there is some doubt about the fourth wave. Here is the special report of Madan Jada on this issue…
Will the fourth wave come to India?
The pace of corona infection in India seems to be rapidly moving towards zero. The infection rate has come down to 0.37 percent. But with the way people have faced three nationwide and several local infectious waves over the past two years, the question on everyone’s mind is, what next? Will there be a nationwide fourth wave or will corona remain a disease like cold and flu?
Cases are increasing in China and Europe
It is also important to know here that while corona is weakening in the country, 10-11 lakh new infections of corona are being registered daily in the world. However, in the past this number had reached 30 lakhs. Not only this, cases of corona are increasing rapidly in some parts of the world, including China and parts of Europe. That is why it is also being said that a new wave of corona has started in the world? If yes, then how far is India from it?
Fourth wave will come only after the arrival of the new variant
Experts keeping a close watch on the situation in the country say that there is no possibility of a fourth wave yet and there is no solid epidemiological basis behind the predictions made by various institutions in this regard. Well-known virologist T Jacob John says that the first wave came due to alpha. Delta contributed to the second and Omicron was the main reason for the third. If you look at the three waves, three major variants are clearly responsible for this. Therefore, there is no risk of a fourth wave until a new variant has arrived, a variant that is more infectious or even different from the existing variant.
Hopefully there will be no mutation
John says that if we look at all the major epidemics from the Spanish Flu between 1918-20 to now, it becomes clear that no epidemic has lasted longer than two or three cycles (waves). Therefore, epidemiology gives a strong basis that the virus may no longer have a major mutation that causes a fourth wave.
Old variants can also become a threat
William Hange, an assistant professor of epidemiology at Harvard University, confirms the same thing, but he says that the challenge should not be considered over. Even if the new variant doesn’t arrive, there are Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta and Omicron. Therefore, the process of genome testing, new vaccine development and multiple booster doses has to be continued.
Immunity is born in people
In the journal Nature, researchers from Monash University, Australia say that in countries where people have been infected on a large scale, immunity has developed for a long time on a large scale. It is also effective in reducing the risk of new wave.
India’s third wave