Assembly elections in Karnataka are still a year away, but the BJP has started making ground for a massive victory here. For this, the party has decided to adopt its tried-and-tested formula of Hindutva without any clout. The recent success in the assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Goa and Manipur has strengthened the party’s belief that the Karnataka version of such politics can also be successful.
If reports are to be believed, this was discussed in the last meeting of the state executive and it was decided to take forward the agenda of Hindutva. To strengthen his Lingayat vote-bank, the Union Home Minister had also visited Siddaganga Math in Bengaluru in the past, where he paid homage to the statue of Shivakumara Swamy. This occasion may have been the birth anniversary of Swamiji, but it clearly exposed the religion-based strategy of the BJP.
Widespread polarization and development promises, especially in parts of south Karnataka, have helped the party grow so far. But now it will be expanded to the entire state, so that it can be taken advantage of in the assembly elections. The saffron family (the RSS and its various organizations are part of this, whose main motto is to preserve and propagate Hindutva and its associated nationalism) is working day and night for this.
The effect of all this is also visible, because the issues related to minorities have started rising rapidly in Karnataka. The controversies related to hijab, azaan, halal and selling of goods by Muslim shopkeepers outside Hindu temples should be seen in this background. Not only was there an attempt to create tension here by airing these issues, but it has also had an impact on the rest of India.
The BJP has certainly been working in a planned manner since the last few decades. Her first attempt to come to power in the province was accomplished with the Janata Dal (Secular), when it forged an alliance with HD Kumaraswamy in 2007. But it didn’t last long. BS Yediyurappa (BJP) was elected chief minister in the 2008 elections, but had to step down midway as corruption cases were registered against him. He left the party to form his own party, which was a major setback for the BJP in the state. However, he returned in 2014 and became the state president of the BJP within two years. The party got 104 seats in the 2018 assembly elections and missed out on a majority by nine seats. The BJP government lasted only three days, and the Janata Dal (S) and the Congress formed the government in an unexpected alliance. But this friendship was also in turmoil from day one. The Congress got 80 seats in this election, but it supported the Janata Dal (S), which had only 37 MLAs.
Around 20 MLAs of the Congress and the Janata Dal (S) resigned after the tussle in the alliance escalated. By-elections were held in 17 seats due to heinous political tricks and Yeddyurappa was once again in the chair of the Chief Minister. However, the BJP was not satisfied with them. He realized that Yediyurappa was unwilling to emphasize Hindutva like that. As a result, he was sidelined and the chief minister’s crown was handed over to BS Bommai.
There is nothing much to say about the working capacity of the new government, but Karnataka has been in the news ever since Bommai took office. Controversy after another is erupting in the state, in which minorities are being targeted to a large extent. The BJP feels that with the help of this polarization, it will get a majority in the 2023 assembly elections and the party will also benefit in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. It is directly snatching the seat of the Janata Dal(S), whose appeal is getting less and less. The Janata Dal(S) has a strong foothold in the Vokkaliga community, which accounts for 17 per cent of the total electorate. It also enjoys support in and around Mysore and other major districts of the state. But after gathering support among Lingayats, BJP is eyeing these votes.
Thus, there is little chance that the Janata Dal(S) will put up a tough fight. Therefore, the main responsibility of fighting the BJP lies with the Congress itself. However, even after the failure of 2018, there is no dearth of supporters of Congress on paper, but this party itself is its own enemy. There is a lot of factionalism in it and it does not see any concrete strategy to defeat the BJP. Its leader and former Chief Minister Siddaramaiah had launched the ‘Ahind’ (Kannada word from the initials of minorities, backward classes and Dalits) movement in 2018 to take on the BJP. He is very popular even today, but he has Shiv Kumar in the party against him, who also has a good ability to mobilize supporters. Both of them are contenders for the post of Chief Minister.
However, the BJP also has its challenges. It has relatively less popular leaders like Bommai. The party has good penetration among Lingayats, but it is not uniform. In northern Karnataka itself, where Lingayats dominate, it has better relations with Muslim minorities, as they follow the principles of Basava (founder of the Lingayat sect). The Congress base is still left among the Dalits. However, the BJP also has the issue of development, in which context it will be interesting to see how much benefit it gets in the elections. However, it has benefited from religious polarization in North India. She also wants to try it in Karnataka, which is considered the gateway to the southern states.
(These are the author’s own views)