After the Uttar Pradesh assembly elections, the biggest question mark on anyone is the future of the Bahujan Samaj Party. Mayawati, who was sworn in as the Chief Minister of UP four times, got only one assembly seat in her account, which is less than Congress and Raja Bhaiya’s Jansatta Loktantrik Party. The vote share has also come down by about 10 per cent as compared to the 2017 assembly elections. In such a situation, the three biggest questions that are emerging are that why has the party been in such a condition? Is there now a crisis in the existence of the party and can the party still make a comeback and if so how? We have asked these questions by eminent researcher of sociology and political science Prof. Spoke to AK Verma. Let us know from them the answers to these 3 questions.
Why did BSP have such a condition?
AK Verma, director of the Center for Study of Society and Politics, says, “There are many things behind this, firstly, Mayawati herself is responsible for losing her support base. She shifted to National Politics and bypassed the politics of Uttar Pradesh. The use of social engineering by Mayawati in 2007 was very unique and was very successful. He used inclusive politics by abandoning casteist and Dalit identity politics. Not only Brahmins but all sections of the society were taken along and in the results of 2007 it was also shown that the vote of all the society had increased for Mayawati. But the problem was that the government was formed with very low vote share (30 per cent), in which the share of Muslims and Brahmins was very high. Due to this the Dalits felt that they got identity but did not get empowerment. She could not reconcile Dalit, Brahmin and Muslim. Couldn’t take this experiment any further.
After asmita, now desire dominates
AK Verma, who has researched UP politics for a long time, says, “The second reason is, since Mayawati could not pursue her inclusive politics, there was a feeling among Dalits that our identity has become intact, but our There is politics of desire and aspiration, how will it be fulfilled. Identity is fine, but you want to move on from it. There is also some desire within you, which you want to fulfill. He saw potential in the Modi government and turned to the BJP. The slogan of BJP was Sabka Saath, Sabka Vikas and Sabka Vishwas, initially it was a jumla, but they converted it into reality through service delivery. Benefit of schemes reached to Dalits. Direct Benefit Transfer (DBT) is a major contributor to this. Through this, the role of middlemen in schemes for the poor and downtrodden ended. This showed them the difference in quality and felt that this government was doing something for us. So after 2014 you will see that the reserved seats were occupied by BJP, whereas earlier BJP used to find it very difficult in these seats. By winning the reserved seats, the BJP has got a huge pool of such MPs and MLAs from which it can strengthen its hold and association.
Jatav vote is also scattered
AK Verma, a former professor at Christ Church College, says, “The most surprising thing about this election is that earlier this thing was applicable to most Dalits, but this time the Jatav community has also contributed to it. The vote share which used to be 85 per cent with Mayawati has reduced to only 40 per cent this time. 45 per cent shifted to BJP and partly to SP also.
Is the existence of the party in danger?
Verma says, there is a crisis on the existence of the party. No one expected such a bad performance. If some kingmaker was telling, some would even claim to form the government, but the ground reality was different. If this reality continues like this, then I think a serious question mark will be raised on Mayawati and the Dalit leadership. The BJP has kept the motive of ‘Sabka Saath Sabka Vikas’, everyone’s effort has also been added to it, it is being structured in a special way. No segment of voters in politics today is the property of any party. There has been a very fundamental change in the voting pattern, which I call the ‘Marriage Model of Voting Behavior’ to the ‘Share Market Model of Voting Behavior’, which means earlier the voter was committed to a party Like a person who is committed in marriage, but today in share market model, the party which will get maximum happiness, returns, growth will go to that party. He is seeing this possibility in BJP today, so he has not remained committed with Mayawati. That is why today the issue of identity has become secondary, the issue of aspiration has become a priority.
What are the chances of a comeback and how?
In response to this question, AK Verma says, he has Kanshi Ram’s model for comeback but you should have a desire to implement it. It is not possible for Mayawati and Akhilesh to implement that model. These two cannot come together now, even if they come, there will be no benefit. Because the social division that has taken place among Dalits and OBCs will never allow these castes to become a class. A leadership emerged that brought Dalits and OBCs on one platform on the principles of Kanshi Ram and Lohia. Even if a leader emerges like Mayawati and does politics only by taking the Dalits forward, then there is a question mark on success, because as long as there was a crisis of identity with the Dalits, they stood with the identity casteist party, today their ambition has got wings. Identity has become secondary.