Bihar Politics: The politics of Bihar is ready to turn once again. In view of the upcoming 2025 assembly elections, the scope of Grand Alliance may be larger than before. In the 2020 elections, where five parties – Rajdas, Congress, and three Left parties (CPI, CPI, Male) were together, this time can be potentially seen by seven political parties.
According to sources, Developing Humans Party (VIP) and RLOJP can also join the Grand Alliance. VIP was already with an alliance in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, where RJD had included it by giving three seats from his quota. However, if these two parties join the coalition, the seat sharing will require new balance, which may have to sacrifice some seats for the existing allies. If the RJD and Congress unite in the upcoming assembly elections, this alliance can become a serious political challenge for Chief Minister Nitish Kumar and his party JDU.
The figures of the previous elections emphasize the possibility that this shared front of the opposition parties can exclude the existing ruling alliance with a majority. Especially the strong hold of the RJD and the Congress’ constant vote percentage seems to be weakening the position of Nitish Kumar. Political analysts believe that if this alliance managed to keep its vote bank united, then the chair of Nitish government may face a crisis.
Election rate election performance change: 2015 vs 2020
In the 2015 assembly elections, RJD, JDU and Congress fought elections unitedly. At that time the RJD contested 101 seats and won 81 – there was a lot of strike rate. At the same time, the Congress won 65% strike rate by winning 27 out of 41 seats.
In contrast, JDU went with NDA in the 2020 election and RJD, Congress and Left were left in the Grand Alliance. This time RJD contested 144 seats and won 75 – its strike rate declined to 52%. At the same time, the Congress could win only 19 out of 70 seats – the stroke rate fell to 27%.
Change in vote percentage also
While RJD’s vote percentage was 18.35% in 2015, it increased to 23.11% in 2020. That is, an increase of about 5 percent. Congress also got 6.7% votes in 2015, which increased to 9.48% in 2020 – 3 percent increase.
Assembly status: Who stands where?
Party – seats
RJD – 79
BJP – 78
JDU – 45
Congress – 19
CPI (ML) – 12
CPI – 2
CPI -2 – 2
AIMIM (Majlis) – 1
We (our party) – 4
Independent – 1
Nitish Kumar’s ‘U-turn’ politics and JDU’s falling credibility
In Bihar’s politics, Nitish Kumar’s party-gained policy may have repeatedly given him the Chief Minister’s chair, but there has been a huge decline in public confidence. There has been a steady decline in the Janta Dal (United) seats. The party was reduced to 115 seats in 2010, 71 in 2015, and just 45 seats in 2020. In comparison, RJD won the highest 79 seats in 2020, while the BJP was also close – 78 seats.
