New Delhi, 21 May (IANS). The country’s GDP growth is estimated to be 7.2 percent in the fourth quarter of FY 2024-25, with a rapid increase in agriculture sector and a sharp increase in pure indirect tax collection. This has been said in a report released by Barclay.
The main economist Aastha Gudwani of Barclays said, “The advance estimates of crop production indicate that the agriculture sector should improve on a year-away basis. We are estimated to grow at a rate of 5.8 percent of agricultural GVA in the fourth quarter. Its growth rate in the third quarter was 5.6 percent.”
Meanwhile, Union Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chauhan announced on Monday that the country’s grain production has increased by 104 lakh tonnes to 1,663.91 lakh tonnes in 2024-25, which shows an increase of 6.83 per cent.
He said, “The production of Rabi crop in 2023-24 was 1,600.6 lakh tonnes, which is now 1,645.27 lakh tonnes.”
Barclays estimates that the GDP growth rate will be 7.2 percent in the fourth quarter due to a rapid increase in indirect tax collection. The growth rate for the entire financial year is estimated to be 6.4 percent.
The boom in indirect tax collection indicates strength in manufacturing and service sector activities.
Earlier, Moody’s Ratings had estimated India’s growth rate to be 6.3 percent in 2025 and said that it would increase to 6.5 percent in 2026.
Moody’s estimate is close to the IMF estimate, which in its April update has said to be 6.2 per cent of India’s growth rate in 2025.
However, the development estimates of both Barclays and Moody’s are less than an estimate of 6.5 percent issued by the Central Statistics Office (CSO). The CSO has said that the growth rate will be 7.6 percent in the fourth quarter.
Economists estimate that the country’s GDP growth rate will be between 6.4 percent to 7.2 percent in the fourth quarter (January-March 2025) and between 6.3 and 6.4 percent throughout the financial year.
The ICRA has released a development estimate of 6.9 percent for the fourth quarter and 6.3 percent for the entire financial year. ICRA Chief Economist Aditi Nair said, “In the fourth quarter of FY 2024-25, the trend of personal consumption and investment activities continued to fluctuate. Some contributions in the matter of investment were also of tariff-related uncertainty. The service sector’s exports continued to increase the rate of double points, while the export exports continued to be seen after the third quarter.”
Government figures of FY 2024-25 and fourth quarter GDP growth rate will be released on 30 May.
-IANS
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