The rating agency said the risk to our basic forecasts remain quite negative.
The world’s well-known rating agency S&P estimated India’s GDP growth rate for the current financial year (FY2025-26) on Friday to 6.3 percent. S&P said that the growth rate of India’s GDP (GDP) will be 6.3 percent in FY 2025-26 and 6.5 percent in 2026-27. According to PTI news, it is estimated that China’s growth rate is expected to decline by 0.7 percent to 3.5 percent in 2025 and three percent in 2026.
Because of this reduced estimate
According to the news, S&P said that the estimate for India has been cut in view of uncertainty on the US fee policy and its negative impact on the economy. S&P Global Ratings, in its report, expressed concern over the rise of conservationist policies, saying that no country becomes the winner in the such scenario. The rating agency had said that in its previous estimate in March, India’s GDP growth was reduced from 6.7 percent to 6.5 percent in FY 2025-26.
Risk remains quite negative
The rating agency said the risk to our basic forecasts remain quite negative. Tariff shock can have a more negative effect on the economy than expected. The long -term structure of the global economy, including the role of America, is also not fixed. The rating agency has estimated the rupee’s exchange rate to be Rs 88.00 per dollar at the end of 2025 against the US dollar, which was Rs 86.64 per dollar at the end of 2024.
America’s customs policy may be of three types
According to S&P, this year the US economy is expected to increase by 1.5 percent and 1.7 percent next year. The agency believes that the US customs policy can be of three types. This bilateral trade imbalance with China, improper competition and geopolitical stresses will be a different case. Business relations with the European Union are likely to be complicated, while Canada can take a tough stance in trade talks with the US. S&P hopes that the rest of the countries will try to compromise with the US instead of taking retaliation.
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