The resentment of America and NATO towards Russia due to the war with Ukraine has raised India’s concern. US President Donald Trump has threatened to ban Russian oil buyers not to be ready for a peace agreement. The US has said that if Russia is not ready for a peace agreement with Ukraine, it will be imposed 100% tariff. NATO General Secretary Mark Root has also threatened India, China and Brazil to impose 100% or more tariffs on continuing trade with Russia. This is called secondary tariff. This threat has given rise to new concerns for India.
In fact, after the attack on Ukraine in 2022, Western countries stopped buying oil from Russia by banning. India took advantage of this opportunity and started buying oil from Russia at heavy discounts. This purchase helped India to control inflation and keep the economy stable amidst global turmoil. India imports more than 85 percent of its crude oil requirement. Russia has been India’s largest exporter for the last three years. But now the supply of cheap Russian oil to India is at risk.
Now the question arises whether India will continue to buy oil from Russia after threats of strict sanctions. India’s Petroleum Minister Hardeep Singh Puri has said on the matter that India is not afraid of the threats of US sanctions. The US and NATO threats can also be a conversation strategy with Russia. The oil market currently has sufficient supply and prices will be low in the near future. Russia contributes about 10% to the world’s oil production. If the purchase of oil from Russia is stopped, prices may increase. Türkiye, China, Brazil and many European countries are also buying oil and gas from Russia. Puri said that if oil prices are to be kept under control, the whole world will have to use 10% less oil, which is not possible. Otherwise, the remaining 90% will have to buy more oil from the supplier, increasing prices.
The Petroleum Minister said last week that oil prices in the world are stable due to India’s continuous buying oil from Russia. If oil imports from Russia are stopped, crude oil prices can reach $ 120 to 130 per barrel. He said clearly, I have no worry, if anything happens, we will deal with it. According to a recent report, many European countries supporting Russian sanctions on Russia are still buying Russian oil through third countries.
How will India work without Russian oil?
The big question is that if the threats of secondary sanctions given by Trump and NATO prove to be true, then how will India meet its needs without Russian oil, because today Russia’s share in India’s total oil imports is more than 33%. According to the Energy and Clean Air Research Organization, Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air (Crea), China has imported 47% of Russia’s crude oil since Russian oil ban, followed by India 38%, European Union 6% and Turkey 6%. Russia’s stake in India’s oil imports in FY 2021-22 was only 2.1%, but in FY 2024-25, Russia’s share in India’s total oil imports has increased to 35.1%.
Is this just the trick of Trump?
In an ET report, sources associated with the case stated that this tax game is a way to pressurize Trump for an agreement on Russia. Trump’s warning is just a trick to increase the conversation with Russia. Here, Russian President Vladimir Putin is also adopting a dual strategy. On the one hand, they are talking to Trump on the phone and talking about peace agreement and on the other hand they are attacking Ukraine. In addition, if India and China face 100% tax on buying Russian oil, then these countries will increase the cost of imports into the US, which will be burdened with American consumers and will become a politically difficult situation for Trump.
