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The mathematics of the assembly will decide the results, PK’s party is at stake; How interesting will Bihar by-election be?

by Sandhya Hirani
October 23, 2024
The mathematics of the assembly will decide the results, PK's party is at stake; How interesting will Bihar by-election be?

The by-elections being held for four assembly seats in Bihar can bring a new twist in the politics of the state. These elections are not only important for the ruling NDA and the opposition Indian Alliance, but are also a tough test for election strategist turned politician Prashant Kishor and his Jan Suraj Party. While these by-elections can affect the current power equations, they can also decide the direction of the political future of Jan Suraj Party.

What will be the impact of the by-election results?

Among the seats where by-elections are to be held, three out of these four seats are with the Indian Alliance. Of these, two seats are with RJD (Ramgarh and Belaganj) and one seat is with CPI-ML. At the same time, NDA constituent Hum Party has one seat. At present, BJP is the largest party with 78 seats, while RJD is on 77 seats. If RJD succeeds in retaining Belaganj and Ramgarh seats, its tally will increase to 79, one more than BJP. In such a situation, this tussle for seats between BJP and RJD is becoming very exciting.

Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraj Party at stake

Everyone’s eyes are on Jan Suraj Party, which has entered the electoral battle for the first time in Bihar politics. Prashant Kishor, who has worked for many parties as a strategist till now, is fielding his own party candidates this time. However, this election will not be easy for Jan Suraj. The party had fielded former vice army chief Lt Gen SK Singh as its candidate, but after he was disqualified on technical grounds, Kiran Singh was made the candidate.

This is a challenging step from the point of view of local equations because in the politics of Bihar, local candidates are given a lot of importance. Although questions are being raised on Prashant Kishor’s strategic abilities, it will be interesting to see how his party performs here.

What are the strategies of NDA and opposition?

This by-election is an opportunity for NDA to strengthen its power. Deepa Manjhi, daughter-in-law of Union Minister Jitan Ram Manjhi, is contesting from Imamganj seat, while Ajit Kumar Singh, son of RJD state president Jagdanand Singh, is contesting from Ramgarh seat. Placing Jan Suraj Party among these big faces is a risky endeavor for Prashant Kishore.

Political analysts believe that Jan Suraj Party will still have to face a lot of challenges. Social analyst Professor NK Chaudhary says, “Events change rapidly in Bihar politics, and it is never predictable. This path is not easy for Jan Suraj, but Kishor is trying.”

The results of this by-election will decide the political equations for future elections. While the NDA is trying to increase its seats, the RJD and CPI-ML of the India Alliance are hoping to retain their seats. The result of this election will have a direct impact on the politics of the state, which will decide the direction of the next assembly elections.

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