77 year old Pappu… Opposition’s allegation – Pappu is ill… Opposition also alleges that Pappu does not have a government, it is a government of bureaucracy… these are allegations… but the data says something else. He has been the power center of a state since 2000, then why was he talking about an alliance after 2009, i.e. after 15 years. Has Pappu become weak with age? Or has Pappu’s stronghold been breached?
Here Pappu means Naveen Patnaik. From Naveen Patnaik of Odisha. From CM of Odisha. It is said that until he entered politics and used to come to his state from abroad on special occasions, people knew him only by his family name Pappu. His father and former Odisha CM Biju Patnaik used to call him Pappu. After the death of Biju Patnaik, his younger son Pappu i.e. Naveen Patnaik returned from abroad and took over his political legacy.
Then what… Since 2000, there is a continuous Biju Janata Dal government in Odisha and Naveen Patnaik is the CM.
But this time the circumstances have changed. In the month of February-March, speculations were being made that BJD would form an alliance with BJP this time. Perhaps that is why BJD supported Ashnini Vaishnav in Rajya Sabha. After this, on March 5, on the birth anniversary of Biju Patnaik, PM Narendra Modi went to Odisha. He called Naveen Patnaik his friend. And from here, speculations started that BJP and BJD will enter into alliance in both the Lok Sabha and Assembly elections of 2024. But, this could not happen. BJP decided to contest the elections alone.
First of all, let us talk about the figures of Lok Sabha elections…
There are 21 Lok Sabha seats in Odisha. In 2014, BJD had won 20 out of 21 seats. He got a record 44.8% votes. BJP’s vote share was 21.9% and it had to be satisfied with 1 seat. After 5 years, in 2019, BJD’s vote share declined by 1.5% and it got 43.3% votes.
other side BJP The vote percentage increased from 21.9% to 38.9%. That means there was a growth of 17%. Not only this, BJP’s seat also increased from 1 to 8. This means that a lot of water has flowed in Mahanadi since 2014… The workers there are excited by the growth that BJP has got in these years and they feel that it can win 70% seats in the Lok Sabha and have the opportunity to form the government in the state. You may get into a situation…
What is the mathematics of assembly elections?
In 2014, BJD’s vote share increased by 5% to 43.9% compared to 2009. BJD had won 117 seats. Congress got 26% votes and got 16 seats in its account. BJP got 18.2% votes and had to be satisfied with 10 seats.
The electoral mathematics of the state changed in the year 2019. BJP got 32.8% votes and 23 seats. With this it became the opposition party in the state. The graph of Congress further dropped and it got only 16.9% votes. Whereas only 9 seats were available.
Is the former IAS officer the successor?
Naveen Patnaik is 77 years old. The opposition alleges that his health is not well. In such a situation, VK Pandian, who left the IAS job and joined Patnaik, is considered his successor. He is considered the main campaigner and strategist of the party. He is also called the backroom boy of elections.
BJP’s strategy
BJP Till 2009, Odisha was governed by BJD. But after the Modi government came to power at the Centre, BJP changed its strategy and started expanding in the state. Earlier BJP did not have faces in the state. But then BJP changed the equations of the state by putting forward leaders like Dharmendra Pradhan, Ashwini Vaishnav at the central level and leaders like Jual Oram, Jai Baijayant Panda, Manmohan Samal in the state.
BJD’s vote bank breached
Naveen Patnaik has the opportunity to create a record of serving as CM for the longest period. If he remains CM for 6 more months, he will break Pawan Chamling’s record of remaining CM for the longest period of 24 years. But, this time BJP has made a dent in their vote bank. BJD’s vote bank is tribal, backward and poor classes. But, BJP has breached this vote bank with its ration scheme, Ujjwala scheme and other central government schemes. He has prepared a team of regional leaders.
What will be the result of Odisha elections…? Will different trends be seen in Lok Sabha and Assembly? Will Naveen Patnaik be able to make a record? Will it raise the slogan of BJP crossing 400 Lok Sabha seats… or something else will happen… At present, the elections in Odisha have reached an exciting situation and are setting a trend different from the rest of the country…
Tags: Loksabha Election 2024, Loksabha Elections
FIRST PUBLISHED: May 16, 2024, 14:59 IST