Strong leadership is necessary at the local level, BJP cannot win only by relying on Modi
By the way, corruption very rarely becomes an issue affecting the elections. But when the perception about a government becomes strong in the public’s mind that it is dominated by corruption, then the results come like Karnataka. The reason for the defeat of the UPA-2 government at the Center in 2014 was also the public perception about corruption. In the campaign to describe the Bommai government as ’40 percent commission’, the Congress put all its might and got success. His populist promises also worked for him. BJP had probably already realized about the crackdown of its only fort in South India, so it gave all its strength to save it. Prime Minister Narendra Modi campaigned aggressively. PM’s rallies were held. Roadshows happened. On the pretext of Congress’s promise to ban ‘Bajrang Dal’, an attempt was made to polarize the election by invoking ‘Bajrang Bali’ but nothing worked. On the other hand, the BJP was stunned in the UP municipal elections. Lotus bloomed on 17 out of 17 municipal corporations. SP, BSP, Congress… all the opposition parties have become windy. Even in the matter of Municipalities and Nagar Panchayat Presidents, BJP was far ahead of other parties. There is a big message hidden in the election results of Karnataka and UP that BJP cannot win in the states only by relying on Modi. For that effective leadership at the local level is also necessary. The image of Yogi’s strict administrator has been further strengthened by the results of the civic elections. This factor was behind the BJP’s victory in the UP assembly elections a year ago. But the weakness of the local leadership in Karnataka cost the BJP dearly. The BJP in the state had to change the Chief Minister midway. Bommai failed to make an impression and the party was divided in the elections over allegations of corruption.
Congress is still alive!
The Karnataka election results are like a tonic for the Congress ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. Most exit polls had predicted a lead or a majority for the Congress, but the party fared much better. Such was his storm in the state that the testicles of the BJP flew away. JDS’s HD Kumaraswamy’s dreams of becoming the kingmaker have been dashed. The doors of resort politics were closed in the state. Within 6-7 months of the Himachal victory, another state has come in the hands of the Congress. In both the places, the party ousted the BJP from power in a spectacular manner. The Congress, which is continuously shrinking on the map of the country, has bounced back from these results. Now after Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Himachal, Karnataka also has its government in 4 states. The way the Congress had to face defeat in the Gujarat elections and the Aam Aadmi Party knocked there, a perception was being created about the Grand Old Party that it is slowly getting out of the political scene and the Aam Aadmi Party is gradually coming out of the political scene. Slowly it can take its place. But the Karnataka elections showed that the Grand Old Party is still alive! If the leaders forget the differences and fight together in the elections, then it is not very difficult to regain the lost land.
Increased stature of Rahul Gandhi
The massive victory of the Congress in Karnataka has increased the stature of Rahul Gandhi among the leaders of the opposition. Bharat Jodo Yatra has changed the image of ‘Reluctant Politician’ of Rahul Gandhi and he has succeeded in projecting himself as a combative leader. Now the tremendous victory of Karnataka has further cemented his image. He has termed it as the ‘victory of love over hate’. Barely a year before the Lok Sabha elections, such a massive victory in a big state makes Rahul Gandhi the biggest face of the opposition. In the exercise of opposition unity against Modi in 2024, it will be difficult for the rest of the parties and leaders of the opposition to ignore Rahul Gandhi. With the victory of Karnataka, Rahul Gandhi’s claim for the post of PM from the opposition has now become stronger than leaders like Mamta Banerjee, Arvind Kejriwal, KCR. However, there is still a year’s time for the Lok Sabha elections. There will be a lot of tussle for opposition unity and the common face of the opposition against Modi, but the claim of Rahul Gandhi and the Congress has strengthened. However, there is a big problem in the case of Rahul Gandhi. He has been sentenced to 2 years in the defamation case. Because of this, not only has he lost his Lok Sabha membership, but he will not be able to contest the next Lok Sabha elections as well. Yes, if he is acquitted by the higher court before the 2024 elections, then this obstacle can be removed.
Priyanka’s stage set for a big role at the national level
The Karnataka assembly election results have set the stage for Congress General Secretary Priyanka Gandhi Vadra to play a bigger role at the national level. Priyanka had confined herself to UP politics but she campaigned fiercely in the Himachal elections. In Karnataka too, she managed to make a mark with rallies and roadshows. Huge crowds also turned up at Priyanka’s rallies and roadshows. During the election campaign, he tried to connect the heart with the public by reminding them of his grandmother Indira Gandhi and her relationship with Karnataka. The results show that she has been successful in this endeavour. Now his role and activism at the national level in Congress is going to increase further. If Rahul Gandhi does not get relief from the upper court in the defamation case, then Priyanka Gandhi Vadra can also be a contender for the post of PM from the Congress.
How much impact will the results of both the states have on 2024?
How much impact will the results of the Karnataka assembly and UP civic elections have in 2024? Is this an alarm bell for Narendra Modi? This resounding victory will act as a lifeline for the Congress. With this victory, the Congress workers are filled with new zeal and enthusiasm. Other opposition parties are also excited by the defeat of BJP in a big state like Karnataka. But has this started the countdown for the Modi government? Will BJP’s one-sided victory in UP civic elections have an impact on 2024 as well? maybe no. Karnataka is a state election. The victory in this will definitely boost the morale of the Congress and other opposition parties, but it is not necessary that the results come in 2024 as well. As far as UP is concerned, the BJP’s performance in the municipal elections, especially the mayoral elections, was good even when it was out of power in the state. The issues are decided according to the election. Municipal elections and assembly elections are mostly focused on local issues, but national issues dominate the Lok Sabha elections. Just 6-7 months before the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP suffered major setbacks in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh. In all the three places, the Congress ousted him from power, but when the Lok Sabha elections were held, he won a landslide victory in all the three states. Therefore, the results of the Lok Sabha elections cannot be predicted on the basis of the results of the assembly elections. Even in a state where assembly and Lok Sabha elections are held simultaneously, the performance of the parties may vary. Odisha is the biggest example of this. In 2019, along with the Lok Sabha elections, assembly elections were also held in Odisha. BJP got about 6 percent less votes in the assembly elections than in the Lok Sabha elections. That’s why the results of Karnataka are sure to boost the morale of the Congress and the opposition, but it cannot be said for sure whether they will have an impact in 2024 as well.