Before the counting of votes on June 4, the India Alliance kept talking about how the 2024 election results would prove to be an ‘India Shining’ moment for the BJP. Because this time the exit polls and election results also seem to repeat the history of 2004, 20 years ago.
This time the Modi government had predicted “370-plus” for itself and “400 plus” for the NDA, but the results were just the opposite. The BJP could win only 240 seats and the NDA 293 seats. Although the NDA is going to form the government again under the leadership of Narendra Modi, but not with the enthusiasm that was being predicted.
What happened in 2004?
Before the 2004 Lok Sabha elections, the brave soldiers of the country had won the Kargil war. Not only this, in the second quarter of 2003, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate was 8.4 percent. Due to both the events on the security and economic fronts, the popularity of the Vajpayee government was at its peak. On one hand, while the country’s borders were becoming more secure, the foreign reserves in the country’s treasury were constantly increasing. The opposition was constantly collapsing. At that time in 2003, the Congress had lost the assembly elections in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. To capitalize on the weakening opposition and the growing popularity of the government, Atal Bihari Vajpayee had dissolved the Lok Sabha 6 months in advance in February 2004.
The BJP then launched the ‘India Shining’ campaign, which included a recorded message from Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee himself – “Main Atal Bihari Vajpayee bola raha hun…”
At that time, Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s ‘India Shining’ campaign was similar to today’s Modi-Shah BJP campaign “Abki Baar, Modi Sarkar”.
exit polls fail
20 years ago also similar exit polls were released as were released this time. In 2004, Lok Sabha elections were held in 4 phases from 20 April to 10 May. Exit polls were released after voting on 10 May. In the exit polls, NDA was shown to be slightly behind the majority of 271 seats. But the opposition UPA was limited to 200 seats.
5 exit polls had predicted that NDA would get 240 to 278 seats. Regarding UPA, it was said that the opposition alliance could be limited to only 176 to 198 seats.
But when the results came, the BJP led NDA got 181 seats and the Congress led UPA alliance won 218 seats. In this election, BJP won 138 seats with 22.16 percent vote share. Apart from this, Congress won 145 seats with 26.53 percent vote share. CPI-M and CPI won 53 seats.
Among the regional parties, Samajwadi Party won 36, RJD 24, Bahujan Samaj Party 19 and DMK 16 seats.
Even two decades ago, BJP’s victory was concentrated in a handful of states. BJP had won 17 seats in Madhya Pradesh, 16 seats in Karnataka, 15 seats in Rajasthan, 12 seats in Maharashtra and 11 seats in Gujarat.
The main allies of the Congress were the Left parties, Rashtriya Janata Dal, DMK and Nationalist Congress Party, while the BJP relied on Janata Dal (U) and Telugu Desam Party (TDP). This time too, almost the same parties are in the coalition of the ruling and opposition parties.
Tags: Lok Sabha Election 2024, Lok Sabha Elections, modi government, Narendra Modi
FIRST PUBLISHED : June 5, 2024, 21:03 IST