Several news channels in collaboration with various agencies released exit polls after the last phase of polling for the five-state assembly elections concluded on Monday. Most of them indicated that the Bharatiya Janata Party in Uttar Pradesh and Manipur, the Aam Aadmi Party in Punjab and no party would win in Uttarakhand and Goa.
Now the question arises that to what extent can pre-result surveys be trusted? Taking a look at the past experience, we find that these surveys throw light on the big picture made during the election but look far from the final result after the counting of votes. There have been occasions in the past when these surveys have failed to capture the big picture.
Pre-results Surveys The accuracy and reliability of the results of these surveys have been questioned since inception. In these surveys, voters are asked various questions to decide whom they would have cast their vote for. And on the basis of this inference is made. Pre-result surveys started in India in 1957. Since then, some surveys have proved to be correct and some have failed to gauge the pulse of the voters.
The results of pre-results surveys at the time of the general elections held in the year 2014 were a mixed experience. Most of the surveys said that the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) led by the BJP will come close to forming the government at the Center but will be short of some seats. Only one poll said that the NDA would get an absolute majority. When the results came after the counting of votes, the BJP crossed the majority mark on its own.
At the same time, a total of 336 seats came in the account of the NDA, while the Congress was reduced to 44 seats. On the other hand, during the Bihar assembly elections in 2015, the situation was quite the opposite. Most of the results in the previous surveys said that the BJP will outshine the JD(U) and RJD alliance. When the results came, the opposite happened. The alliance got 178 seats while the BJP had to be content with 58 seats.
Similarly, in the recent West Bengal assembly elections, most of the surveys pointed to a majority for the Bharatiya Janata Party, but when the results came out, the BJP reached 76 seats. Similarly, in the Haryana assembly elections, the BJP was given an estimate till it got up to 80 seats and the Congress only three seats. But when the results came, the BJP could get only half the seat.
In the pre-result survey in the year 1996, it was said that no party would get a majority in the Lok Sabha. When the results came, it turned out to be true. The BJP emerged as the single largest party but no one got a majority in the lower house of the Parliament. Under the leadership of Atal Bihari Vajpayee, the government lasted for 13 days and Vajpayee could not gather a majority in the house.
After this, governments were run under the leadership of HD Deve Gowda and IK Gujral. Even during the Lok Sabha elections in the year 1998, the pre-result surveys were proved correct. In these surveys, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) led by the BJP was estimated to have more than 200 seats. When the results came, the NDA got 252 seats. Congress and its allies got 119 seats in this election.
Pre-Result Survey of Uttar Pradesh
In the 2012 elections in Uttar Pradesh, a pre-result survey predicted a hung assembly with the Samajwadi Party outperforming its opponents. After the election results, the Samajwadi Party registered a landslide victory by winning 224 seats in the 403 assembly. Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party got 80 seats. At the same time, BJP and Congress could manage to win only 47 and 28 seats respectively. In the 2017 assembly elections, most of the pre-result surveys proved to be correct. During that time pre-result surveys had predicted an absolute majority for the BJP.
In the Modi wave, the BJP returned to power in Uttar Pradesh after 14 years. The BJP got three-fourth majority in the state. At the same time, the Samajwadi Party-Congress alliance and the BSP could not stand anywhere. In the 403-member Uttar Pradesh Legislative Assembly, the BJP formed the government by securing 312 seats. After adding the seats of allies, the total number of seats had gone up to 325. At the same time, the SP had won 47 seats and the Congress seven. The BSP had won 19 seats.
More focus on voting than on voters in surveys