Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida visited India in the midst of a protracted war between Russia and Ukraine. India and Japan are in different diplomatic camps over the Ukraine crisis on the international stage. There were discussions between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Kishida about the Ukraine crisis, but both took a cautious approach and the talks focused on the situation in the Indo-Pacific region.
Indeed, Japan, like countries in the West, has imposed extensive financial sanctions to isolate Russia. These include curbing the export of semiconductors and other high-tech products. India, on the other hand, has taken a cautious approach, which the western countries are not satisfied with. India has not criticized Russian President Vladimir Putin like the West and has also barred itself from voting against Russia in the United Nations. The governments of America and European countries are repeatedly appealing to India to change its stand.
Most of the countries of the world are watching the attitude of the two organizations on the international stage of diplomacy. Whatever steps will be taken by these organizations in the coming days, there are indications that the direction of international diplomacy will be decided through them. These organizations are G-20 and OPEC. The G20 summit is scheduled to be held in October and diplomatic exercise has started regarding this. On the other hand, along with diplomacy, all eyes are also on the stance of OPEC countries in the Ukraine crisis regarding crude oil prices that decide the course of the economy.
The meeting of foreign ministers of G-20 countries is to be held in June. The effect of tension will come to the fore in this meeting to be held to decide the agenda. This time Indonesia is hosting the summit of G-20 countries. The G-20 is a grouping of 20 countries with the largest economies in the world. Its next summit is set to be held in Nusa Dua, Indonesia’s tourist enclave. Russia is also a member of the G20, on which Western countries have imposed very strict restrictions.
The big question before Indonesia is whether it will send a formal invitation to Russian President Vladimir Putin. Given the extent to which Western relations with Putin have become bitter, it is believed that if Putin comes to the summit, the leaders of 15 countries will boycott it. Among them is US President Joe Biden. But if Putin is not called, it is likely that many countries, including China and possibly even India, will lower their level of representation.
As far as the situation of Indonesia alone is concerned, its President Joko Widodo is being told in confusion. By the way, Indonesia also has historical relations with Russia. The statement issued by Indonesia after the attack on Ukraine criticized the attack without naming Russia. Indonesia voted in favor of a resolution condemning Russia at the United Nations, but it has refused to impose sanctions on Russia.
Russian company Rosneft is building a refinery in Java, Indonesia, at a cost of $1.4 billion. Apart from this, Russia is also helping Indonesia in the exploration of oil and gas in the North Natuna Sea. The impact of these relations has been shown on Indonesia’s position. In such a situation, the countries of the G20 are trying to find a solution to the Ukraine crisis before June.
sanctions on Russia and dependence on OPEC
In the midst of the Ukraine crisis, the second major organization is OPEC, whose dominance is increasing. Apart from America, many countries including Canada, Australia, Britain have also stopped importing oil from Russia. In fact, Russia is the third largest crude oil producer after the US and Saudi Arabia. In such a situation, the role of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), a powerful organization of oil producing countries, is increasing. OPEC currently has 13 member states including Algeria, Angola, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Congo, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Venezuela.
OPEC countries exported around 19.7 million barrels of oil worldwide every day in 2020. Of this, 5.4 million barrels were given to China. Before August, OPEC crude oil prices were around US$ 41.47 per barrel. It rose to US$ 65.74 per barrel in August 2021. India imports 80 percent of its crude oil to meet its requirement. Whereas, China imports 50 percent and South Korea, Japan import 100 percent crude oil. OPEC countries supply 60 percent of India’s requirement. These include Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, Venezuela. All these countries are founding members of OPEC. Obviously, most of India’s oil needs are met from these countries. In the current era of sanctions on Russia, the importance of OPEC countries has increased.