From coup to civil war
Since the military general took control of the country in 2021, Myanmar has witnessed killings by the army almost every day. The coup ended democratic rule under the National League for Democracy, a group led by Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi. However, I believe there are reasons to suggest that Myanmar’s military grossly miscalculated the timing of the coup and underestimated people’s sentiment about the loss of freedom and prosperity experienced under a democracy.
Perhaps in this the army went astray by following the experience of its counterparts in neighboring Thailand. During 2014, a military general in Thailand staged a coup, promising to end political instability and begin a process of democratic governance. That coup was met with sporadic protests, but no unified armed resistance emerged in response. On the same lines, the Myanmar army also staged a coup citing holding ‘fair elections’. Unlike Thailand, the people of Myanmar—especially the younger generation—vehemently opposed the military coup and were skeptical of claims that it would restore democracy. After the coup, peaceful protests turned into armed resistance.
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confusion at the international level
Pro-democracy activists say that the situation is not changing much due to the international confusion regarding Myanmar. Also, since the outbreak of war between Russia and Ukraine, the issue of Myanmar has received little attention from the international community. Both the US and the United Nations have made statements in support of democracy in Myanmar and condemned the killings. However, concrete action has been insufficient, which has so far been largely limited to sanctions on individuals and entities.
Associate Professor Theraphi Than, Department of World Cultures and Languages, Northern Illinois University DeKalb (USA)