There will be huge turmoil within the Congress
On the other hand, the silence before the storm is visible in the Congress. Despite Priyanka Gandhi’s hard work in Uttar Pradesh and Charanjit Singh Channi’s Dalit card in Punjab, the Congress’s humiliating defeat and its marginalization in Uttarakhand, Goa and Manipur have been written. Now there will be huge upheaval within the Congress. With its leadership facing a direct challenge from dissidents, the dependence of the Gandhi family on Chhatraps like Ashok Gehlot in Rajasthan and Bhupesh Baghel in Chhattisgarh will increase. Commenting on the election results, G-23 leader Manish Tewari, in a conversation with AnyTV, said that Rahul Gandhi should be asked why this plight of Congress happened, what the disgruntled leaders will do in the coming days. . Whereas in the BJP, Yogi Adityanath’s challenges from within the party will also be blunt after this record victory and the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh will play future political bets on 49-year-old Yogi Adityanath to achieve the ultimate glory of his Hindu nation.
Yogi Adityanath breaks 37 year old record
Completing the seven-phase long election process, the results of the Uttar Pradesh assembly elections broke the 37-year-old record of any Chief Minister and government returning, telling that he is very much not only for Uttar Pradesh but also for the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh and the BJP. have become useful. Although Akhilesh Yadav once again missed out on becoming the Chief Minister of the country’s most populous state, but in the election contest, Modi became a non-BJP leader by taking a direct fight with Yogi’s BJP and increasing the SP’s seats and vote percentage compared to the previous elections. Has become a big face of politics in North India. While Priyanka Gandhi’s women’s card could not cut the political polarization of religion and caste, and despite all the hard work and mobilization in large numbers, the poor results have dimmed the luster of this potential Congress leader. On the other hand, Aam Aadmi Party and Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal have carved an important place for themselves in future non-BJP national politics by bringing tsunami of thumping majority in Punjab.
Stamp on the popularity of PM Modi and Shah
The matter of Uttar Pradesh, where there was a lot of thorny fight and it seemed that only those whose issues and slogans have touched the hearts of the people will win it. The BJP not only won this battle of Uttar Pradesh but also saved its government in Uttarakhand and left its opponents behind in Goa and Manipur as well. This success of the BJP once again stamped the popularity of the public on the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Home Minister Amit Shah and party President JP Nadda and Yogi Adityanath, the Chief Ministers Narendra Modi, Shivraj Singh Chouhan and Raman Singh, who have won consecutive elections in the party. Made it stand in the queue. Five years ago, when the Samajwadi Party government was in power in the state and elections were held, there were many reasons in favor of the BJP, which gave the BJP a historic victory for the first time in 2017 and got a stormy majority of 325 seats including allies.
BJP was out of power for 14 years after 2002
After the 2002 defeat, the BJP remained out of power for 14 years and the SP-BSP took turns to form the government in the state. That’s why the resentment of the people was also against him and an invisible sympathy was also growing about the BJP. The ruling Samajwadi Party and its first family i.e. Mulayam Singh Yadav had a fierce battle from top to bottom, due to which the SP’s base, organization and workers were divided, there was confusion, dissatisfaction and despair. The tussle in the camps of Akhilesh, Ram Gopal Yadav vs Shivpal Singh Yadav and Amar Singh had tarnished the achievements of the Akhilesh government. Anyway, Akhilesh Yadav may have been Chief Minister for five years, but for almost three years, the door of his government was swinging between father Mulayam Singh Yadav, uncle Shivpal Yadav, Ram Gopal Yadav and Mohammad Azam Khan, besides a powerful bureaucrat loyal to Mulayam Singh Yadav. That’s why the saying was going on in Uttar Pradesh that there are three and a half chief ministers in the SP government. In the midst of all this, the last nail in the downfall of the SP was struck by the alliance with the Congress. Akhilesh Yadav, who left more than a hundred seats for the Congress, did not get any benefit from the Congress’s upper caste mass base, but where there were SP candidates, the non-Muslim Congress mass base increased its strength by voting for the BJP and the same SP’s Yadav base made the Congress And in all the seats of the state BJP got this extra bonus vote more or less.
Modi’s popularity at peak after 2014
On the other hand, the BJP’s morale was skyrocketing with its victory in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections and subsequent assembly elections (with the exceptions of Bihar and Delhi). The popularity of Prime Minister Narendra Modi was at its peak. People were blindly trusting everything he said. Amit Shah, who became the party president, had succeeded in integrating them with the BJP by forming an umbrella of non-Yadav backwards and non-Jatav Dalits in the state. By giving the command of the state BJP to a new face Keshav Prasad Maurya, an undeclared message was sent to the non-Yadav backward castes that if the BJP government is formed, Maurya can become the Chief Minister. After Kalyan Singh, no non-Yadav backward face had become the Chief Minister in Uttar Pradesh, so by applying this political ambition of the backward castes, the BJP completely mobilized them with itself in 2017 and the upper castes were aligned with the BJP. Then Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who was elected to the Lok Sabha from Varanasi in 2014, sought votes in his name for good governance and development in Uttar Pradesh and people blindly trusted him and voted. Along with this, Prime Minister Modi had also raised the polarization of Hindutva by raising the issue of electricity in the cremation ground versus graveyard and Diwali versus Ramzan in the election campaign. Due to this, the heat of the Muzaffarnagar riots of 2013 was heated again and there was tremendous polarization of Hindus in favor of BJP.
Yogi government’s entire bookkeeping was in front of the public
This time, the entire bookkeeping of the BJP and Yogi Adityanath’s government, which ruled Uttar Pradesh for five years, was in front of the people as to how far the dreams and promises made by the BJP in 2017 were fulfilled. With its very expensive campaign, the BJP stoked its achievements on the tongues of the people. At the same time, claiming to give better law and order than the SP government in its favor, despite many shameful incidents like Hathras and Unnao in the state, it managed to create the concept that the honor of women in the state was protected in a better way under Yogiraj. The BJP has the popularity and charisma of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, as well as the intense Hindutva face of Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath, to which the image of the bulldozer chief minister has also been added and there is a time to teach a lesson to the Bahubalis like Mukhtar Ansari and Atiq Ahmed and aggressive Muslim leaders like Mohammad Azam Khan. Attempts to create Hindu polarization of Muslim opposition in the name of law and order through repeated announcements were also successful. It also took the early hours of the exodus of Jinnah and Kairana. Along with this, what the BJP is calling as its Brahmastra, is the scheme of giving free ration to the poor, which started from the Corona period. It was to run till December 2021 but was extended till March 2022 in view of the elections. BJP leaders claim that this scheme of distribution of free ration has proved to be a game changer for them.
These issues have benefited the BJP
Along with these two issues, women’s safety and law and order, the BJP raised and campaigned fiercely in every public meeting to provide free ration to five crore people. The BJP had no shortage of resources, organization and worker force and it also got tremendous support and cooperation from the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh, which it made full use of. However, Samajwadi Party President Akhilesh Yadav did not repeat the mistakes this time which he did in 2017. First of all, he had announced several months before the elections that this time SP will not tie up with any national and big party, but will make electoral agreements with local and small parties. With this, the SP ended the possibility of any electoral friendship with the Congress and the BSP.
Akhilesh changed strategy this time
In fact, Akhilesh, who had seen the fate of the alliance of Congress in 2017 and BSP in 2019, changed his strategy this time and took those small and local parties which had so much base among their castes in their respective areas that they could vote in favor of someone. By creating and breaking the balance, it can decide someone’s victory and someone’s defeat. After this, Akhilesh Yadav entered into an electoral alliance with Omprakash Rajbhar of Subhasp, Sanjay Chauhan of Janwadi Kranti Party, Keshav Dev Maurya of Mahan Dal, Krishna Patel of Apna Dal (Communist) and Jayant Chaudhary of RLD. Along with this, other strong leaders of non-Yadav other backward classes, Jats, Muslims, Swami Prasad Maurya, Dara Singh Chauhan, Dharamvir Saini from BJP, Rajaram Pal, Harendra Malik, Pankaj Malik, Imran Masood from Congress and Ramchal Rajbhar, Lalji Verma etc. from BSP. joined together. Akhilesh Yadav very carefully included strong Brahmin leaders Harishankar Tiwari, Vinay Tiwari, Vijay Mishra, Vinod Chaturvedi etc. in the SP.
Silent wave of Hindu polarization in favor of BJP
Akhilesh Yadav, who has been accused of inaction for nearly four-and-a-half years, has very tactfully fielded himself in opposition to the government since September and stepped up his campaign to such an extent that the Samajwadi Party alliance came into direct competition with the BJP. If the SP’s direct contest with the BJP outright polarized Muslim votes in its favor, its campaign also triggered a silent wave of Hindu polarization in favor of the BJP, which did not allow the backward sections of the SP to unite with it as they wanted to defeat the BJP. was necessary. The SP hoped that Priyanka Gandhi’s slogan, Ladki hoon, I can fight and her hard work will dent the BJP’s upper caste base but it did not happen. Whereas a major part of the BSP’s non-Muslim vote went with the BJP. All these equations have written the story of BJP’s victory and SP’s backwardness. Whereas in Punjab, Uttarakhand, Goa and Manipur, the party’s organizational turmoil and leadership crisis weakened the public’s confidence in the Congress and people looked for other alternatives. In Punjab, the Aam Aadmi Party got its benefit, while in Uttarakhand, Goa and Manipur BJP again won.
Now there is a possibility of turmoil in Congress
The first effect of these election results will come in the form of a new rift within the Congress. Prashant Kishor will once again start work in the direction of anti-BJP non-Congress front with double zeal. These defeats have also eroded the Congress’s influence over allies such as the NCP, Shiv Sena, DMK and RJD. Whereas parties like TRS, Congress YSR, BJD have already distanced themselves from Congress. Now after getting power in Delhi and Punjab, the Aam Aadmi Party will try its best to snatch the political ground of Congress in the states of Gujarat, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Goa, Uttarakhand etc. Arvind Kejriwal will now emerge as a new influential Chhatrapa who can take on Modi and the BJP in his own style. Arvind Kejriwal has indicated this while addressing his workers after the victory of Punjab.
Kejriwal will now be an alternative to Congress
While the political character and appeal of Chhatraps and their parties like Mamata Banerjee, MK Stalin’s Chandrashekhar Rao Naveen Patnaik Nitish Kumar, and their parties are regional, Arvind Kejriwal and the Aam Aadmi Party may have been formed as the party of Delhi but their political character is national and The stormy victory of Punjab has given it further expansion. Now Aam Aadmi Party will not stop here. The Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh assembly elections, to be held later this year, will snatch the Congress’s ground and votes by registering a strong presence in the Karnataka, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh assembly elections in 2023. It will present itself as an alternative to the Congress and form an influential role in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections along with other regional parties. AAP’s effort is to become the pivot of the anti-BJP front by bringing more or less MPs than the Congress.