Heavy rains filled all the shortage
Monsoon has had a very poor start this year. The loss was 60% on 9 June. It gradually eased but remained well below normal in June. The heavy rains caused flash floods and brought the cumulative rainfall to normal levels. This is a ray of hope. At least it was confirmed that the lack of rain was made up for. North-west India, which produces the country’s food grains, has received more rain than normal. Central India has received normal rains. Rainfall conditions over the southern peninsular belt are below normal. The east and northeast are also rain deficient where floods could be a bigger problem than drought.
Of course, the ideal situation would have been to have two weeks of continuous rain instead of extremely heavy rains. Excess rain is stored in dams, barrages and underground reservoirs. But too much rain drowns farms and cities, and the water flows into the ocean without any use. Nevertheless, the reservoir level has increased due to excess rains and this cannot be ignored.
Threat of El Nino but relief from rain
This is especially good news as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has begun. It is the warming of the seas of the South Pacific that often causes severe droughts in many countries including India. El Nino is still in its early stages and may not be as dominant this year as next year. Still, it’s a threat, so heavy rain is a relief.
What will happen in the future? What are the experts’ predictions?
- what about the future? Pessimists claim that climate change will cause drought in tropical countries like India. However, many expert organizations including the India Meteorological Department (IMD) do not agree with this opinion.
- In April 2022, the IMD launched its long-term forecast for rainfall in the 2020s and 2030s. Its model showed that rainfall would increase in both these decades. This is a sign of better times, not disaster.
- This conclusion is also supported by other estimates. The Economist recently cited a study which suggested that for every one degree rise in temperature, India’s rainfall would increase by 5.3%.
- This is very important. This will be especially important for rain-fed areas where even a little extra rain can make the difference between a good harvest and disaster.
- The Working Group of the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released its Fourth Assessment Report in 2007. It estimated that by 2080, rainfall in the Tibetan Plateau would increase by 10%–30%. This is also good news.
- It is possible that some part of the excess rain may come in the form of heavy rains which will cause floods. This reinforces the need for flood protection measures, but the benefits to agriculture will be enormous.
Not flood, heat wave is a big threat to India
The major climate threat to India is not drought, but heat waves. They are silent killers. The disaster they cause cannot be captured on video, so the media focuses on floods and droughts. But even a one degree increase in temperature can suddenly and silently kill the workers who are forced to work in the scorching heat. In 2022, 2,227 people died of heat stroke in India. ‘Nature’ magazine estimates that the number of people who died of heat stroke in Europe last year was 61,000. A record 52.5 degree temperature was recorded in Xinjiang province of China.
Some experts fear that by 2050, summer temperatures in India will soar that even those resting in the shade may not survive. This will not only kill thousands of people but also lead to a significant decline in labor productivity and GDP. More rain will not end the heatwave, but it will blunt its deadliest effects. A single shower can bring down the temperature significantly. So, let us expect an increase in rainfall in the years to come, even if it comes in the form of occasional floods. The profit will be more than the loss.
To read the original article by Swaminathan S Anklesaria Iyer in English click here