India Ratings and Research (INDRA) expects the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate to be 6.7 percent in the March quarter and around 6.9 to 7 percent in the financial year 2023-24. Sunil Kumar Sinha, chief economist of the rating agency, has expressed this estimate. The government will release preliminary estimates of GDP growth for the fourth quarter (January-March 2024) and financial year 2023-24 on May 31.
Growth rate in December quarter was 8.4%
The Indian economy has grown at the rate of 8.2 percent in the June quarter of 2023-24, 8.1 percent in the September quarter and 8.4 percent in the December quarter. “We are expecting the fourth quarter growth to be 6.7 per cent and the overall GDP growth for FY 2023-24 to be around 6.9-7 per cent,” Sinha told PTI video in an interview.
Growth rate benefited from low base in first 2 quarters
He said that in the first two quarters the growth rate benefited from a low base. However, the growth rate of 8.4 per cent in the third (October-December 2023) quarter was ‘surprising’. He further said that when we analyze the data, it is found that there is a difference between GVA and GDP. A major boost to GDP in the third quarter came from higher tax collections, but this is unlikely to happen in the fourth quarter.
CEA had estimated 8% growth rate.
Recently, Chief Economic Advisor V. Ananth Nageswaran had said that based on the strong growth recorded in the three quarters of the financial year ending March 31, 2024, the gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate could reach 8 percent in the financial year 2023-24. There is a lot of possibility of reaching there. He had said, “IMF has estimated a growth rate of 7.8 percent for the financial year 2023-24.” If you look at the pace of growth in the first three quarters, clearly the chances of the growth rate reaching 8 per cent are quite high.
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