Lucknow. The date of the first phase of general elections in the country is coming near and in these elections in Uttar Pradesh, all eyes are on many Muslim dominated seats of Paschimanchal including Rampur, Moradabad and Sambhal, where the share of Muslim voters is 23 to 42 percent. Is between. In the last Lok Sabha elections held in 2019, the alliance of Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), Samajwadi Party (SP) and Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) had achieved considerable success in the Muslim-dominated region of Paschimchal, but this time the equations have completely changed.
While BSP is contesting alone in the state, RLD, which has influence in the Jat community of Paschimanchal, is standing with BJP this time, while SP is contesting in alliance with the Congress which has been ruling the state for more than three decades. I am searching for my lost land. All parties and alliances are making strategies to ensure their victory in Western Uttar Pradesh, but if we look at the trends of the last several elections, polarization and caste equations have been the basis of victory and defeat in Western Uttar Pradesh.
The Lok Sabha constituencies of Western Uttar Pradesh where Muslim voters are in majority include Rampur (42 percent), Amroha (32 percent), Saharanpur (30 percent), Bijnor, Nagina and Moradabad (28-28 percent), Muzaffarnagar (27 percent), Kairana and Meerut (23-23 percent) and Sambhal (22 percent) are included. Apart from this, the participation of Muslim voters is (19-19 percent) in Bulandshahr, Baghpat and Aligarh. If Muslim voters unite and vote for one party or alliance, they have the power to change the outcome.
In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, BSP had won the Muslim-Dalit dominated Saharanpur, Bijnor, Nagina and Amroha seats, while its alliance partner SP had won the Moradabad, Rampur and Sambhal seats. However, BJP got the benefit of dispersion of Muslim votes in many seats of Paschimanchal, and despite the majority of Muslim voters, it won the seats of Muzaffarnagar, Kairana, Meerut, Bulandshahr, Baghpat and Aligarh.
In the changed circumstances, the biggest concern for the SP and Congress alliance will be to prevent the fragmentation of Muslim votes, because the possibility of its victory in Muslim dominated seats can be possible only if Muslim votes are united in its favor. Political analyst Parvez Ahmed believes that this time keeping the Muslim voters united in its favor is the biggest challenge for the Samajwadi Party. A major reason for this is that since 2019, SP has not been as vocal on Muslim related issues as is expected from it.
He said that one thing is also that BSP has fielded Muslim candidates on every seat where Dalit voters dominate after Muslims. He said that with RLD joining the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA), even those Jat voters who were away from it till now have joined the BJP. However, Samajwadi Party spokesperson Fakhrul Hasan claims that Muslim voters are still standing strongly with SP.
At the same time, RLD’s alliance with BJP will not have any impact on the prospects of SP alliance because the alliance of BJP and RLD is not natural. Friends, in the last few years it has been proved that RLD no longer has as much influence as was expected. He claimed that in the last Lok Sabha elections held in the year 2019, BSP had benefited from the Muslim votes of SP, due to which it was successful in winning 10 seats.
There was no alliance between SP and BSP in the 2022 assembly elections and SP had won many Muslim dominated seats in Western Uttar Pradesh by defeating BSP, hence it is not right to say that Muslim voters are getting disillusioned with SP. .
On the other hand, BJP is entering the field as per the strategy of winning Muslim dominated seats in the last Lok Sabha elections. Kunwar Basit Ali, President of Uttar Pradesh unit of BJP Minority Morcha, said that in the last Lok Sabha elections, there were about 20 thousand such booths where BJP had lost. This time, teams of 11 members each have been formed at all these booths, in which women are also included. Has been done.
He said that this team is especially trying to get their votes for BJP by contacting those sections of the Muslim society who are availing the benefits of various welfare schemes of the government. This time a target has been set to get at least 50 votes in the booths where BJP had got two, three or five votes.
He said that in the last Lok Sabha elections, BJP had got about 10 percent votes of the Muslim community. This time the target is to increase it to 15 percent. Especially Pasmanda Muslims are being linked to BJP who have benefited the most from the government schemes. If we look at the candidates declared by various parties on Muslim dominated seats in Western Uttar Pradesh, BJP has not given ticket to even a single Muslim this time.
Whereas, SP has fielded Deepak Saini from Bijnor, Ruchi Veera from Moradabad, Muhibullah Nadvi from Rampur, Ziaur Rehman Burke from Sambhal, Manoj Chaudhary from Baghpat, Yashveer Singh from Bijnor, Manoj Kumar from Nagina, Bhanu Pratap Singh from Meerut, Bijendra Singh from Aligarh. , Iqra Hasan from Kairana and Harendra Malik from Muzaffarnagar have been made candidates. SP has given the seats of Amroha, Saharanpur and Bulandshahr to Congress under the alliance, which has given tickets to Danish Ali, Imran Masood and Shivram Valmiki respectively on these seats.
Apart from this, BSP has fielded Majid Ali from Saharanpur, Shripal Singh from Kairana, Dara Singh Prajapati from Muzaffarnagar, Vijendra Singh from Bijnor, Surendra Pal Singh from Nagina, Irfan Saifi from Moradabad, Zeeshan Khan from Rampur, Saulat Ali from Sambhal, Mujahid Hussain from Amroha. , Devvrit Tyagi from Meerut, Girish Chandra Jatav from Bulandshahr, Gufran Noor from Aligarh and Praveen Bansal from Baghpat have been made candidates.
If we look at the results of the last elections, it is clear that BJP has faced challenges in those constituencies where Muslim votes range from 30 to 42 percent. The dynamics of these elections are shaped by the polarization of Hindu votes, with Muslim-dominated seats sometimes joining forces with Dalit communities and sometimes standing independently. Apart from this, Jat factor has also played an important role in determining the election results.
Challenges remain for the opposition alliance consisting of SP and Congress as it wants to effectively convert Muslim votes in its favour. Now all eyes are on the strategies adopted by various political parties to manipulate the complex dynamics of Muslim-dominated seats in western Uttar Pradesh in their favour. The stakes are high and the outcome of these elections could have far-reaching implications for the region and beyond. In the first phase of Lok Sabha elections, voting will be held on April 19 for Saharanpur, Kairana, Muzaffarnagar, Bijnor, Nagina, Moradabad, Rampur and Pilibhit seats of Uttar Pradesh.
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Tags: BJP, Congress, Loksabha Election 2024, Loksabha Elections, Muslim Voters, UP Muslim Voters
FIRST PUBLISHED: March 31, 2024, 21:26 IST