BJP in breath due to strike of wrestlers
Now that a batch of wrestlers belonging to the Jat community of Haryana are on strike and are making serious allegations against Wrestling Federation of India (WFI) President Brij Bhushan Sharan Singh and demanding strict action against him, the BJP is caught in the wind. Brij Bhushan is a BJP MP and a Rajput. In such a situation, it is not easy for BJP to decide. The major reason for this is that by winning the support of Jats in UP, BJP was able to reduce the damage caused by the polarization of Yadavs towards SP. The party realizes that if the Jats got angry in UP, what price it had to pay for it.
Jats started jolting BJP in UP
The Jat voter-based party Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) came back to life in last year’s UP assembly elections as the Jats turned away from the BJP. Then RLD got success in eight assembly seats. Then recently the elections of Nagar Panchayat and Nagar Palika chairman were held. The RLD and its alliance partner Samajwadi Party (SP) improved their performance in districts dominated by Jats.
On the other hand, the performance of BJP in these areas was not as expected. BJP state president Bhupesh Chowdhary is also from the Jat community. Be it his constituency Moradabad or party MP Sanjeev Balyan’s Muzaffarnagar or MP Satyapal Singh’s constituency Baghpat, BJP’s hopes were shattered everywhere. BJP won only 20 of the total 56 municipal chairman seats in these three districts, while only 34 of the total 124 Nagar Panchayat chairman seats were won.
Jat influence on 40 Lok Sabha seats in four states
Next year, when the exercise of unity among the opposition parties is gaining momentum for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections and when the BJP is dreaming of breaking its previous record as well, then this sample of UP is not giving a good signal. In terms of Lok Sabha seats, the largest state of the country, UP, has dominance over a dozen parliamentary seats. If Haryana, Rajasthan and Delhi are also added, then Jats play a major role in deciding victory or defeat in about 40 Lok Sabha seats.
This is how Jats came with BJP
Jats were not inclined towards BJP before 2013 Muzaffarnagar riots. But the Lok Sabha elections were held in 2014, the year after the riots, and the Jats turned their backs on their leader Ajit Singh and his son Jayant Chowdhary. Due to Jats turning towards BJP, 14 out of 15 BJP candidates won in the 2017 UP assembly elections. However, the situation changed in the next five years itself. The BJP has the maximum number of 10 Jat MLAs in the 2022 UP assembly elections, but the RLD and the SP have done better with four and three MLAs respectively.
old dominance of jats on politics
Jats have historically dominated the politics of North India. Chaudhary Devi Lal and Ranbir Singh Hooda (father of former Haryana Chief Minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda) used to be prominent Jat leaders in the 1950s and 60s. Then the partition of Punjab and Haryana had not taken place. Both were the same state – Punjab. On the other hand, Nathuram Mirdha in Rajasthan and Chaudhary Charan Singh (father of Ajit Singh) in UP used to be universal leaders of Jats. After the formation of Haryana in 1966, more than 25 percent of the Jats migrated to the new state. Then a Jat leader like Banshi Lal emerged.
Jat politics from Devi Lal to Banshi Lal and now to families
Chaudhary Charan Singh became the Chief Minister of Uttar Pradesh twice. His question was not only among Jats but also among other castes and even Muslims. He also became the Prime Minister of India for about six months in 1979-80. Charan Singh died in May 1987 and after him no Jat could become the CM of UP. After Charan Singh, the best situation for the Jats was when the National Front government was formed at the center in 1989 and VP Singh became the Prime Minister. He had the full support of the Jat community. Then Devi Lal was a big leader of the Jats and was made the Deputy Prime Minister. Ajit Singh was also in the same VP Singh cabinet. The current Vice-President Jagdeep Dhankhar also used to be with VP Singh then. Later differences started between VP Singh and Devi Lal and Devi Lal was dropped from the VP Singh cabinet.
Mandal commission spoiled the equation of Jats
When VP Singh decided to implement the recommendations of the Mandal Commission, the Jat community was not included in the OBC list of the Central Government. When the Jats opposed the reservation, then their rift with the backward classes (OBC) increased. Because of this, the social equation of the Jats deteriorated and the dominance they used to create along with other OBC castes is no longer possible. Keep in mind, Jats have got OBC status in UP, Rajasthan, Delhi, Himachal Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh, but they are still out of the central reservation list. The exceptions are two districts of Rajasthan, Bharatpur and Dholpur, where they are also in the central OBC list.
Jat politics marginalized by the Ram Mandir movement
In Haryana, Devi Lal’s legacy continued in the form of the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD), but the party later split into two factions within the family. The INLD has had a poor performance in the assembly elections. Meanwhile, the family’s new party – the Jannayak Janata Party (JJP) took power in Haryana in a post-poll alliance with the BJP. On the other hand, after the Ram Mandir movement in Uttar Pradesh, politics took a new turn and the Jats were politically marginalized.
Are Jats and BJP in a mood to take risks?
Since the 1990s, the Jats in UP, first through Mulayam Singh Yadav’s SP and now through the BJP, kept tying up with the ruling parties and then started moving from the margins to the centre. Now the situation seems to be changing again. The question is whether Haryana has already had a non-Jat CM twice, will Jats reduce their political status in UP as well? The question is also whether BJP is in a position to bear the brunt of Jats going away from themselves?