South Asia has reacted differently to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. It is natural for the activities of South Asian countries to have an impact on India, as most of the South Asian countries are India’s neighbors. There have been discussions between India and Pakistan in this area regarding the Ukraine crisis. But there have been many countries in this region, which remained neutral or openly sided with Western countries. Most countries considered strategic questions. It was seen as an attempt to pave the way for new systemic and strategic changes brought about by Russian attacks.
Sri Lanka and Afghanistan
In view of diplomatic equations, India has adopted a neutral attitude in the Ukraine crisis. India did not take any side during the voting in the United Nations. Afghanistan and Sri Lanka also adopted such an attitude, which came as a shock to the world community. Afghanistan and Sri Lanka have refused to take sides in the conflict and have adopted a neutral stand in their official statements. The Taliban government of Afghanistan has asked both sides to resolve the crisis through dialogue and peaceful means.
Sri Lanka has urged the parties concerned to maintain peace, security and stability through diplomacy and dialogue. As far as Afghanistan is concerned, the Ukraine crisis could affect the aid it is getting from around the world. In such a situation, neutrality has been preferred by the Taliban, because it is desperate for international aid and recognition. At the same time, the Taliban may also try to publicize their improved image.
On the other hand, Sri Lanka is likely to be badly affected by the outcome of the war. Rising fuel prices, possible delay in payment of dues and sluggishness in future purchases from Russian importers are some of the challenges facing Sri Lanka. Obviously, the reason for the neutrality of Sri Lanka is its economic crisis. Sri Lanka is facing severe foreign exchange crisis and debt problem.
Bangladesh’s neutrality
Bangladesh has chosen an unofficial policy of neutrality. He urged both sides to return to the path of dialogue and diplomacy. This approach is seen as a compromise between its own national interests and the discomfort caused by Russia’s violation of the United Nations Charter. Russia is an important development partner of Bangladesh. This partnership has been crucial for Bangladesh to rise above Least Developed Country (LDC) status and drive its economic growth and energy security.
The trade between the two countries was worth US$ 2.4 billion in 2020 alone. It was also expected that Bangladesh would sign a memorandum of understanding (MoU) for a free trade agreement with the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union this month. In addition, Russia continues to help Bangladesh maintain energy security. Russia is also providing technical and more than 90 percent financial assistance for Bangladesh’s first nuclear power plant. Russia has also made major investments in Bangladesh’s military equipment, apparel and fertilizer industries.
Nepal, Bhutan and Maldives
The responses of Nepal, Bhutan and Maldives are showing different signs. Nepal has been a strong critic of Russia since the start of the invasion. It has insisted on promoting dialogue and denounced Russia for violating the UN Charter and its use of force against Ukraine. Bhutan said it would study and assess the effects of the war.
However, by reiterating its good neighborly relations, Bhutan raised the issue of safeguarding and protecting the interests of smaller countries under the United Nations Charter. The Maldivian foreign minister called on both sides to find a peace and political solution, but voted against Russia at the UN General Assembly. Nepal’s relations with Russia and Ukraine are limited.
However, Russia has provided helicopters, investment and humanitarian aid to Nepal. The total trade of Russia and Nepal in 2019 was US$ 10.2 million. Bhutan’s relations with both Ukraine and Russia are limited. In such a situation, it is believed that their reactions to Russia are a product of their own geographical location and concerns. These countries located between India and China are in the middle of a power struggle.
The incident of Chinese invasion of Tibet scares these Himalayan states. Nepal continues to accuse India and China of border violations and encroachments. Bhutan has not yet demarcated the border with the aggressive and little land grabber China. Maldives’ relations with Russia and Ukraine are mainly limited to the tourism sector. Both Russia and Ukraine provide more than 20 percent of total tourists to the Maldives.
The impact of sanctions on Russia here too
South Asian countries have responded to the Ukraine crisis by giving priority to their national interests. However, these responses are strategic and immediate. Attempts are being made to steer clear of the systemic and strategic changes brought about by the Russian invasion. Tighter sanctions on Moscow could complicate these nations’ trade, tourism, economic growth, connectivity, energy security, foreign exchange reserves and military modernization policies. The crisis has sparked debate over the relevance of spheres of influence, the reliance on geoeconomics for security, the possibilities of neutrality, alliances and the capabilities of the West.
what the experts say
Russia’s changing policy towards South Asia should be assessed in the context of changes taking place in the regional and international order.
- Vishnu Prakash, former diplomat
In the midst of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, it is imperative that India thinks of building a new framework for its relations with Russia.
- Pinak Ranjan Chakraborty, former diplomat