The politics of Kerala has always been different from the politics of other states of the country. There has been a direct contest between traditionally two major alliances – Loft Democratic Front (LDF) and United Democratic Front (UDF) -. The Communist Party of India (Marxist) i.e. CPM has been prominent in LDF, while the Congress has been leading the UDF. But in recent years, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is gradually strengthening its roots in Kerala, causing the state’s politics to move towards a triangular contest.
There are many reasons behind the BJP’s growing presence. The party has tried to organize the Hindu vote bank in the state, especially emphasizing the Nair community and other influential castes. In addition, the party has made constant efforts to make the fishermen community and the Christian community in its favor. Prime Minister Narendra Modi met the Church leaders and the BJP government also announced to provide special facilities to the Christian community under several schemes. In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP got 15.64% votes in Kerala, which shows an increase of 2.71 percentage points compared to 12.93% of 2019. However, the party won the Thrissur Lok Sabha seat for the first time, making it clear that the BJP has now become a serious contender in Kerala politics.
This victory of BJP may have a profound impact on state politics. Till now the BJP was seen as the third option in Kerala, but the victory of the Thrissur seat indicated that the party does not only want to be limited to increase the vote percentage, but also wants electoral success. This growing activism of the party has created a new challenge for both UDF and LDF. This is especially a matter of concern for the Congress, because the BJP’s strategy is moving towards weakening the traditional vote bank of the Congress in the state.
The recent rhetoric of Congress MP Shashi Tharoor can also bring a new turn in Kerala politics. He has openly praised Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan for some policies, which has increased dissatisfaction within the Congress. This strategy of Tharoor is highlighting the internal discord within the Congress. If the Congress is unable to solve this dissatisfaction and take a separate stand, Tharoor or his supporters take a big benefit from this. This situation can help the BJP organize anti -Congress votes.
However, BJP’s road in Kerala is still not easy. There is a deep doubt about the ideology of the Sangh Parivar and BJP in the state. Muslim and Christian community look at the BJP with suspicion, and the biggest challenge for the BJP is how to increase its acceptance among these communities. In addition, both LDF and UDF have taken an aggressive stand to stop the BJP. The Left Front and the Congress, even though they are opposed to each other at the national level, they often look united against the BJP in Kerala. This alliance increases the challenges for the BJP.
Kerala can become the most difficult political exam for Narendra Modi and Amit Shah, because the politics here is completely different from North India. The kind of Hindutva based politics BJP in the Hindi belt cannot be as effective in Kerala. The society of Kerala is politically highly conscious and the level of education here is also high, so that it is not possible to win elections only on the basis of emotional slogans or aggressive propaganda. The BJP will have to adopt a different type of strategy here, which will have to emphasize on development and administrative reforms.
BJP’s vote percentage has increased gradually over the years, but it is not enough to come to power right now. The BJP got 10.6% of the votes in the 2016 assembly elections, which increased to 11.3% in 2021. However, the party could not win any seat. The victory of Thrissur seat in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections has given new energy to the BJP, but turning it into a strong political base will still be a long battle. If the BJP has to become a big force in Kerala, it will also have to consider its coalition options. Aligning with some sections of the Christian community and bringing local leaders forward can be an important part of its strategy.
The biggest challenge for the BJP is also how to balance its Hindutva agenda. Despite the majority Hindu population in Kerala, communal politics has not yet received much support. Left parties and Congress have strengthened secular politics in the state, and it will not be easy for the BJP to change it. Apart from this, there is also widespread opposition to the activities of the Sangh Parivar in Kerala. In such a situation, the BJP will have to focus more on development and local issues than Hindutva.
The politics of Kerala is no longer limited to LDF vs. UDF. The presence of the BJP has made it triangular, which can change the electoral equation. However, the BJP has to understand that with the help of aggressive publicity and religious polarization, it cannot succeed as easily in Kerala as in North India. He has to form a long -term and inclusive strategy, so that he does not only depend on Hindu votes, but can also increase his acceptance among other communities. If the BJP is successful in doing so, then there can be a big change in the politics of Kerala in the coming years.
In this way, BJP’s growing activism in Kerala has given a new look to state politics. Traditional two-polar politics is now becoming three-polar. This journey will not be easy for the BJP, but if the party adopts the right strategy, it can make a strong presence in Kerala. For this, he will have to focus on local issues, emphasize the model of social and economic development, and the trust of all communities will have to be won. This will be the real test of the BJP and will decide whether the party will be able to realize its dream of its political expansion in Kerala.
,These are the personal views of the author)
