New Delhi, Sep 16 (IANS) Samajwadi Party has announced its entry in the Jammu and Kashmir assembly elections at the last moment. After the filing of nominations and the scrutiny of nomination papers was completed, the party announced on Sunday evening that it has fielded 20 candidates. In the elections being held for a total of 90 assembly seats here, 20 seats are very important. The question arises that who will benefit and who will suffer from this changed equation.
It is certain that Samajwadi Party cannot make any dent in BJP’s vote bank. In such a situation, many speculations are being made about the Akhilesh Yadav led party, which is a part of ‘India’ block, contesting against Congress-National Conference (NC) candidates in Jammu and Kashmir assembly. Most of the political analysts are saying that this is the result of increasing rift in ‘India’ block. They say that the alliance of opposition parties which came together to defeat Prime Minister Narendra Modi in Lok Sabha elections has no purpose left in the assembly elections. In such a situation, their disintegration is certain, and this is also visible on the ground. On one hand, Samajwadi Party has quietly fielded its candidates in Jammu and Kashmir, while on the other hand, things did not work out between AAP and Congress in Haryana.
It is natural for the SP, which emerged as the second largest opposition party after the Congress in the Lok Sabha elections, to have ambitions to expand its base in other states outside Uttar Pradesh. But it is not going to make any dent in the vote bank of the BJP. If the Samajwadi Party can cut anyone’s votes, it is the parties of the ‘India’ alliance.
If we look at the 20 seats on which SP has fielded candidates, then only on four of these its candidates are seen giving tough competition to Congress candidates. These seats are Baramulla, Udhampur West, Bandipora and Wagura Kreeri. Voting is to be held in the third and final phase on October 1 in all the four assembly constituencies. In Udhampur West, apart from SP, Shiv Sena (Uddhav faction) is also in the fray against Congress.
Some political analysts are also suspecting an internal agreement between the Congress and the Samajwadi Party regarding not fielding many SP candidates against the Congress. They say that the position of the Congress is not very good on these four seats, Baramulla, Udhampur West, Bandipora and Wagura Kreeri, and hence even if SP fields candidates on these seats, it will not make much difference to the election results. At the same time, Congress and SP together can harm the National Conference on the remaining seats. This can be a part of the Congress’s backup plan in case of a mixed mandate.
However, traditionally the Samajwadi Party does not have any significant support base in the Union Territory. In such a situation, the SP cannot do much by fielding candidates against any alliance here, but by getting some votes in its favor, it can definitely spoil someone’s game.
However, NDA’s constituent parties are also face to face on some seats in the Union Territory. For example, both JDU and NCP (Ajit Pawar) have fielded their candidates from Wagura Kreeri. But such a situation has not arisen against BJP anywhere.
Whatever the reason, it is clear that the equation has become interesting with the Samajwadi Party’s entry into the Jammu and Kashmir elections. How much of an upset it can actually cause will be known only on October 8 when the election results will be declared.
–IANS
AKJ/GKT
