Bihar Election 2025: Assembly elections in Bihar are getting close to 2025, and the political stir has intensified. All the parties are working on their strategy and many new political equations are seen forming. This time a new twist has come from Asaduddin Owaisi’s party All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM). AIMIM has written a letter to the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) chief Lalu Prasad Yadav expressing his desire to join the Grand Alliance. This letter has been written by Bihar President and MLA Akhtarul Iman of AIMIM.
Does AIMIM want to combine with RJD?
AIMIM leader Akhtarul Iman has said in a letter that it is necessary to stop the scattering of secular votes so that the BJP and its supporting organizations (NDA) can be prevented from coming to power. But RJD leader Manoj Jha replied that if AIMIM really wants to defeat the BJP, then it should give theoretical support to the Grand Alliance instead of participating in the election. Now the question is that AIMIM and Owaisi’s party can play in Bihar elections and how can their electoral performance be.
What is AIMIM’s role in Bihar?
AIMIM, which is led by Asaduddin Owaisi, has become a powerful political party in the Seemanchal area of Bihar. Seemanchal has a high Muslim population, and AIMIM has made a strong hold here. Owaisi and his party emphasizes issues of Muslim community, such as education, employment and social justice. Along with this, Owaisi is also famous for raising voice against his impeccable statements and communal forces.
AIMIM’s role in Bihar elections may be two ways this time:
Alliance with Grand Alliance:
If parties like RJD and Congress include AIMIM in the grand alliance, it can unite secular votes. This can strengthen the status of the Grand Alliance against the NDA. AIMIM has said that it is ready to compromise on fewer seats, provided he gets important seats in Seemanchal.
Fighting alone or being part of the third front:
If it does not matter in the Grand Alliance, AIMIM can contest elections alone or with a third front. Owaisi has already said that his party is preparing to contest more than 50 seats, including Seemanchal and surrounding areas. If AIMIM contests elections alone, Muslim votes may be divided, which used to get the first RJD, and can change political equations.
How can political equations change?
Muslim and Yadav votes have great importance in Bihar politics. The strength of RJD depends on these votes, and the grand alliance tries to keep these votes united. But with the arrival of AIMIM, these equations can be more complex:
Muslim votes divided:
The Muslim population in Seemanchal area is around 30-40%. If AIMIM contests elections alone, she can dent RJD’s Muslim vote bank. In 2020, AIMIM contested 20 seats and obtained 5.23 lakh votes (1.24%), mostly from the Muslim-Bahul seats of Seemanchal. This caused damage to RJD as the grand alliance lost in many seats. If AIMIM will fight alone this time too, then the partition of Muslim votes can benefit the NDA.
Impact on the strategy of the Grand Alliance:
RJD leaders taunt AIMIM as BJP’s B-Team because he feels that AIMIM contests secular votes, which benefits the BJP-JDU alliance. If AIMIM is involved in the Grand Alliance, RJD will have to distribute seats, which can weaken their strength. In addition, inclusion of AIMIM in the Grand Alliance may get angry with some non-Muslim voters, which may be harmful to the grand alliance.
Possibility of third front:
AIMIM has also indicated that if it does not matter in the Grand Alliance, it can form a third front. In 2020, AIMIM, along with BSP and RLSP, created a Grand Democratic Secular Front and won 6 seats (AIMIM has 5, BSP 1). This time too, if AIMIM creates such a front, it can become a challenge for both the Grand Alliance and NDA, because it can not only draw Muslim votes, but also the votes of Dalit and backward classes.
How was AIMIM performance in 2020?
In the 2020 Bihar assembly elections, AIMIM contested 20 seats and won 5 seats. These seats were:
Amore (Akhtarul Iman)
Kochadham (Ezhar Asi)
Jokihat (Shahnawaz Alam)
Bayi (Rukanuddin Ahmed)
Bahadurganj (Anjar Naeemi)
All these seats were from Seemanchal area, where the number of Muslim voters is more. AIMIM won 14.28% vote share (in those 20 seats) and got a total of 5,23,279 votes. But in 2022, 4 of these MLAs joined the RJD, causing a major setback to AIMIM. Now only Akhtarul Iman is the only MLA of AIMIM. Nevertheless, AIMIM has maintained its strong presence in Seemanchal, and its influence in the Muslim voters there remains intact.
AIMIM’s role in Bihar elections
AIMIM for RJD can prove to be a two -edged sword. If RJD AIMIM is included in its alliance, it will have to divide its seats, which can reduce its impact. Apart from this, bringing AIMIM together may also affect the image of RJD, as some people consider AIMIM as a vote-cut party.
On the other hand, if RJD keeps AIMIM out of alliance, Owaisi’s party can contest the election alone and distribute Muslim votes, which can cause damage to the Grand Alliance. Owaisi’s strategy is clear, he wants AIMIM to get a place in the grand alliance, so that his party can strengthen its hold in Bihar.
AIMIM impacts Bihar elections
AIMIM’s role in Bihar Assembly Elections 2025 may be important. If AIMIM is involved in the Grand Alliance, it can help unite secular votes, but this may also cause RJD to bear the loss of its seats and image. At the same time, if AIMIM contests elections alone or with a third front, the partition of Muslim votes can benefit the NDA. In 2020, AIMIM proved that it had become a force in Seemanchal by winning 5 seats, but AIMIM was damaged by 4 MLAs being rjd. This time the attitude of Owaisi’s strategy and RJD will decide in which direction the politics of Bihar changes.
