How did the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) defeat the Samajwadi Party in the Uttar Pradesh assembly elections? How did all the equations of the SP fade in front of the saffron party’s strategy? To what extent did all the efforts to divide the match into 80:20 and 15:85 lines have benefited and how much was lost? The answers to all such questions are being found through the analysis of data.
Alliance with RLD is not beneficial, BJP gets more Jat votes
According to the data given by CSDS, SP did not get much benefit from the alliance with Jayant Chaudhary-led Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) in western UP. Despite this alliance made keeping in mind the Jat voters, the number of Jats riding bicycles has come down compared to 2017. Jat voters, who have a share of 2% in the total population of UP, were discussed a lot in the first and second phases. Where SP got 57 percent Jat votes in 2017, this time it got only 33 percent votes. Whereas BJP got the support of 38 Jats in 2017, this time 54 percent Jats chose the lotus symbol. This is the reason that despite all the claims, BJP once again went ahead in western UP.
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No loss to BJP due to Swami’s departure, marginal advantage to SP
Just before the elections, when OBC leaders like Swami Prasad Maurya, Dharam Singh Saini and Dara Singh Chauhan resigned from the Yogi cabinet and joined the SP, it was believed that it could cause a big loss to the BJP. But by giving preference to OBC candidates in ticket distribution, BJP not only completely destroyed the Swami factor but also increased the vote base. The CSDS report says that this time the BJP was elected by 64 per cent Koiri, Maurya, Kushwaha and Saini voters, while in 2017 the party was voted by 56 per cent of these castes who lived with Swamy. Whereas SP got 18 percent votes of these castes in 2017, this time this figure increased to 22 percent only. Talking about other OBC castes, BJP got 62 percent votes and SP got only 23 percent votes.
Muslim mobilization in favor of SP
CSDS’s post poll survey shows that Muslims voted almost unilaterally in favor of SP in this election. SP was voted for by 46% Muslims 5 years ago, so this time it got 79 percent votes from the minority community. Where the BSP got 19 percent Muslim votes in 2017, this time only 6 percent Muslims remained with the elephant. BJP also got 2 per cent more Muslim votes. When the saffron party got 6 percent Muslim votes five years ago, this time 8 percent of the minorities expressed their faith in the BJP.