A gentleman who became self-reliant during the Corona period sells samosas, salt pare and sandshahi by ferrying a bicycle to the western (Eastern by election) localities of Lucknow. Earlier, he used to work in a confectionery, but became unemployed during the lockdown and after that he liked the formula of making these things at home and selling them on a bicycle. Taste and quality are both fine, so the job is done. We met early in the morning. Suddenly said very loudly, looking at the condition of oil. There’s a fire. And this oil is not petrol or diesel, it is edible oil, which is used in making samosas and sweets. If you do not buy everyday necessities in your home yourself, then find out from the buyer or seller where the price of edible oil and vegetable has reached. Although there was some softening in the price of mustard oil just the day before this thing happened, but the most important role in the mathematics of edible oils is palm oil, which comes mostly from Malaysia. Its price has been rising for a year due to Corona, lockdown and supply problems, but the fire that has started now is directly the effect of Russian attack on Ukraine. And this effect is beginning to be seen not only on edible oil, but on the prices of petrol, diesel, gas and coal to wheat, corn, soybean, milk, cotton, manure and all other metals. Will continue to come for a long time. In a way, this is the price of war between Russia and Ukraine, which we and you will have to pay.
Everyone knows the cost of war, but it is important to understand how much war costs and for how long one may have to pay it. The frightening pictures coming from Ukraine clearly show the price it has to pay for this fight. The cities of the city have been destroyed. It is doubtful that the coming time will be able to erase the traces of this devastation, and it is difficult to even imagine the price that will have to be paid to rebuild that country.
But this is also not the period when the attackers used to come and leave after bloodshed and looting. Now the price Ukraine will pay, Russia will also find this fight no less expensive than that. It is visible too. If the international fraternity is not able to stop the attack, then at least it can do so that the attacking country immediately starts feeling the effect of its action on the economic front. That is, he understands that by attacking he has made a mistake. For this, economic sanctions have been imposed on Russia. The purpose of economic sanctions is not to harass the common citizens of that country, but it does have the effect that the people are in trouble, then work to put pressure on their government against war. In Russia, this pressure is already visible. Even Russian players are not shying away from openly raising their voice against their government in international forums.
Now the doors of world trade are also being closed for Russia. Russia is one of the largest oil exporting countries in the world. Apart from this, it is also a major supplier in the market of many agricultural products like Wheat, Maize, Soyabean, Sunflower. Obviously, the impact of his isolation will be directly reflected in the prices.
In the last fifteen days alone, the price of crude oil has jumped by about 20 percent. Meanwhile, coal is about to double, while the prices of wheat, maize, edible oil and chemical fertilizers have gone up by 10 to 30 percent. Along with this, the risk of inflation has increased all over the world. India is also not spared from this. As soon as the elections are over, the price of petrol and diesel in India is set to increase. At the same time, the ghost of inflation is once again ready to dance on its head.
It is certain that this war will cost Russia dearly. According to a study conducted by three global institutions, Russia had suffered a setback of about $ 7 billion in the first four days of the war, and in total, Russia is set to lose $ 20 to 25 billion daily. The Russian ruble has fallen by more than 30 percent in the foreign exchange market and the decline is not yet over. The stock market in Russia has been closed. The number of sanctions imposed to prevent money from reaching Russia also creates trouble for those countries which have to take money from Russia. This is the reason why in India from industrialists to banks are worried. It is reported that there is a constant discussion between banks and RBI on how to open the way for payments coming from Russia.
The industry is in double trouble. Those who have sent goods to Russia or whose money is engaged in some Russian business, their biggest concern is how to get the money? But the cause of trouble for everyone else is the effect of this fight. The direct impact of this war on India may not be visible yet, but it is scary to add an account of how much this war will cost indirectly. And that’s why I remember these lines of Sahir Ludhianvi-
fire and blood will be spared today
hunger and precaution will give tomorrow
That’s why oh fair people
It’s better if the war continues
In the courtyard of you and all of us
It is better if the lamp keeps burning.
(These are the author’s own views)