The alleged involvement of Belarus in the Russo-Ukraine war is not surprising. The sound of fighting was already being heard on the big side of this war. Russia had been saying for the past several years that NATO should not come close to Moscow with its weapons. But it didn’t happen. Not only did NATO expand, but the ‘Color Revolution’ (anti-incumbency movement in support of democracy) was also successfully completed in the countries of the former Soviet Union. When NATO approached the ‘red line’ drawn by Russia, President Vladimir Putin attacked Ukraine. They must have been anticipating that the next revolution would take place in Russia. Obviously, the tension was there for a long time, this war is just the culmination of it.
Of course, Belarus has entered the war directly or indirectly, but the pressure is far greater on Russia. The countries of Western and Eastern Europe have openly come out in support of Ukraine. NATO has also announced that although it is not sending its troops to Ukraine, but it is definitely providing them with all military equipment. The government of Ukraine has also given arms to almost all its citizens, and they have all taken a stand against enemy forces. This exposes Russia’s claim that it was going to attack to protect Russian or Russian-origin citizens living in the eastern part of Ukraine. Now he must be realizing that the inhabitants of western Ukraine do not want Russia to be around them.
In such a situation, Russia had only two ways. First, in view of economic sanctions, he should also add other countries with him, and the second way was to increase his aggression. The influx of Belarus coincided with warnings of the use of the ‘Father of All Bombs’ and the deployment of nuclear missile-capable aircraft near Latin and South America. He wants to indicate that the war is being fought not between two countries (Russia and Ukraine), but between two superpowers (Russia and America). He needed it because, after the dissolution of the Soviet Union, Russia was not considering Russia as a superpower, and the thinking was growing in the West that the closer it got to Moscow, Russia would shrink in itself. This will naturally make ‘Color Revolution’ easier there too. Russia wants to break this belief of America.
Undoubtedly, what Russia has done to Ukraine is contrary to the principles of the United Nations, but how close these policies are to what the US and its allies were doing should also be debated, which rarely It can happen The problem is that such international conflicts only happen when each side considers itself right and the opposition wrong. Therefore, all the countries of the world should rise above this.
India has been able to distance itself from this escalation for the time being, but it is difficult to say how long this will continue. Thousands of our students are still stuck in Ukraine and are suffering unceasingly. While it is not clear whether Russia or Ukraine gave us any indications of an attack ahead of time, it is clear that the picture ahead is quite dire. The talks between the two countries on the Belarus border were fruitless. But we must have hope that the situation will be handled soon. And, until that happens, we must put the safety of our students first. They should not only be instructed to keep in constant touch with the local administration, but also to send all possible humanitarian aid to Ukraine. We have helped many countries in the past like this.
One initiative can also be that the countries directly involved in this war should be told that India is also indirectly affected by the economic sanctions imposed on Russia. They have to be made aware that it is better if companies leave Russia and move to India, otherwise going to other countries of these companies will not benefit us. In fact, such sanctions have been imposed on Russia, which does not affect the import of pharma, agricultural products, gas etc. into Europe. This has been done because European countries do not have the option of these. Unless America gives them a choice, these things will continue to be supplied from Russia. We should also find some way and make such a system that our dependence on Russia for gas and oil and on Ukraine for edible oil is minimized. America has been trying to give us confidence and New Delhi and Washington have come close to each other on many fronts, but if we start looking at America on every issue, then problems may arise for us in the Security Council.
In such a situation, the demand of diplomacy is that India should unite all the countries that are neutral in this war. There are many countries like India, which are neither with Russia nor Ukraine on this issue. Therefore, we should try to revive the Non-Aligned Movement and unite the countries of Africa and Asia. Along with efforts to end the war, India should also provide humanitarian aid to war-torn areas in collaboration with human rights organizations. We must take this initiative, even if it is certainly not clear how successful we will be in this?
(These are the author’s own views)