In the UP assembly elections, BJP has made many records with a thumping victory. After 37 years in UP, any one party is going to form the government for the second time in a row. There is an atmosphere of celebration everywhere on the victory of BJP. In the midst of this celebration, the big leaders of BJP have something else to worry about.
The biggest question is who got more benefit of the fall in BSP votes. Till now it is being said that BJP has won because of BSP. But the figures say something else. According to the percentage of votes, the SP has got the support of about ten percent more people than the last election. Whereas BJP got only 1.5 percent more votes.
The jump in SP’s vote share is a cause of concern for the BJP. A detailed review is yet to be done but there is no doubt that a huge vote share of BSP has shifted towards SP. The vote share of BSP has declined by about 10 per cent. The vote share of BJP has increased only around 1.5 per cent. In such a situation, it is estimated that the votes broken by the BSP would have gone to both the BJP and the SP.
The votes that would have been lost due to some displeasure with the BJP would have been compensated by the BSP. Only then its vote share has remained stable, but the increase in the vote share of SP shows that a major part of the vote lost from BSP has gone to SP. The data shows that there is no break from SP. This may not be a good sign for BJP.
Akhilesh’s success is a cause for concern
BSP’s vote bank has seen the biggest break so far. In such a situation, the big challenge before the BJP will be to stop the Ambedkarites from being socialists. Akhilesh Yadav had started efforts to consolidate the vote bank of BSP even before the elections. Akhilesh has raised all the Dalit and old BSP leaders with him. They also got the benefit of this. The vote bank that broke away from the BSP has also turned to the SP. Now that the BSP will continue to break down, the problem in front of the BJP will be to stop that vote bank from going to the SP.
Worry is more… SP has an edge in Modi-Yogi’s area
Before the elections, it was believed that due to the farmers’ agitation, the BJP may suffer in western UP. But in Yogi-Modi’s area Purvanchal, the SP has done more damage to the BJP. All the big leaders of BJP had campaigned in this area. PM Narendra Modi himself also campaigned on a smoky basis. Despite this, the position of BJP has become very weak in many districts of Purvanchal.
BJP’s account has not been opened in Ghazipur and Azamgarh, adjacent to PM Modi’s parliamentary constituency Varanasi. SP has won all the ten seats in Azamgarh. Last time BJP won a seat here. SP got 5 seats. Even in seven seats of Ghazipur, the SP has waved its wings. Last time BJP got three seats here. Not only this, the BJP’s account was not even opened in Ambedkar Nagar, located near Gorakhpur, Yogi’s area. Here BJP had two seats.
Apart from this, the condition of BJP has already deteriorated in Jaunpur, Ballia and Mau of Purvanchal. BJP had 5 out of 7 seats in Ballia. This time only 2 seats have been got. Similarly, BJP won 3 out of 4 seats in Mau, but this time it has got only 1 seat. BJP had 4 seats in Jaunpur. Got two this time. This situation is not considered less than an alarm bell.
BJP lags behind SP in postal ballot
There has been a lot of anger among the government employees against the BJP for the demand for the implementation of the old pension scheme. Testimony of this is being given by postal ballot. In most of the seats, the Samajwadi Party has been ahead of the BJP in the postal ballot. Out of nine seats in Chief Minister’s home district Gorakhpur, only his city area and Prime Minister’s parliamentary constituency Varanasi got an edge in four out of eight seats in the counting of postal ballots. The same is the case with the capital Lucknow, where the BJP was left behind in eight out of nine seats.
This time the Election Commission had given the facility of voting through postal ballot to the employees as well as the elderly and the disabled. Because of this, the importance of the postal ballot votes this time was also more. In Lucknow, except the former seat, the SP dominated the remaining eight seats. Similarly, in the Chief Minister’s home district Gorakhpur, apart from the city seat, in the remaining eight seats, SP was the choice of employees and the elderly and disabled, who voted by postal ballot, while the BJP has won all nine seats.
Talking about 41 seats of Gorakhpur-Basti Mandal, the BJP alliance has won 34 of these seats, but has gained only two seats in the postal ballot. In 2017, the BJP had made a lead in the postal ballot on six seats in both the divisions.