New Delhi, July 8 (IANS). Amidst the increasing tension between Iran and America and the recent comments of US President Donald Trump, retired Brigadier Shardendu said that the ceasefire in the Middle East was very fragile from the beginning and ultimately it was bound to break. He claimed that the impact of this development will not be limited to regional security only, but the entire world may have to face inflation, energy crisis and economic instability.
He said that the ‘fragile ceasefire’ that was announced proved to be equally weak in practice. The ceasefire breakdown was initiated by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). The way commercial ships were targeted in the Strait of Hormuz and three consecutive commercial ships were attacked, it gave America the opportunity for military action.
He claimed that after this, America launched a large-scale military operation around the Strait of Hormuz and targeted about 80 targets. These targets included military installations such as command centres, launching sites and speed boats, causing heavy losses. Iran wanted to maintain its surveillance and control over the sea route passing through the Strait of Hormuz, while the US and other countries were in favor of free maritime movement. This confrontation made the situation more explosive.
The retired military officer said that the current conflict is not just a military action, but a fight for supremacy in the entire Middle East. The presence of a large number of people during the funeral of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei sent a message to the world that Iran still has strong social support. In such an environment, questions were being raised about America’s credibility and it felt the need to demonstrate its military strength. The actions of the IRGC became an excuse for America to break the ceasefire. During the conflict, both sides remained continuously engaged in their military preparations. The time of ceasefire was also a period of preparation for both the armies and as soon as the opportunity arose, military action started again. In the current situation, both the sides appear to be in a state of complete war.
Retired Brigadier Shardendu feared that the biggest impact of this conflict will be on the global economy. Crude oil prices have already started rising and there is volatility in the stock markets. If the conflict drags on, inflation could rise worldwide, the energy crisis could deepen and global supply chains could be disrupted. Diplomatic talks also seem to be getting affected due to the war. The dialogue which was progressing between Iran and America may now be completely disrupted. Israel is getting the biggest strategic benefit from this entire incident, because it did not want any kind of permanent agreement between Iran and America.
He said that America’s objective is to completely eliminate Iran’s nuclear program and the current developments have provided it a basis for military action. President Trump first supported the ceasefire and the 14-point program, but as soon as the opportunity for military action arose, America again started large-scale attacks. Iran’s greatest strength is its internal unity. After the attacks on the top leadership, national unity within the country has become stronger and Iran is facing the war with full strength. Both the sides are face to face with full preparation and are continuously targeting each other.
The retired Brigadier further said that it is not possible at the moment to estimate how long this conflict will last. The situation going forward will depend on whether both sides are ready to give peace talks another chance or whether military confrontation will decide the way forward. The international community will also have to make serious efforts to restore dialogue by formulating a new strategy, so that the region can be saved from a widespread war and its global consequences.
–IANS
PSK/ABM
