Since the outbreak of the fighting in Iran, US President Donald Trump has been seen changing his stance on several occasions in his public statements. However, he is firm on one particular thing. In almost every statement he makes, he always adds a special refrain: that the bombing of Iran will “never be forgotten.” Meanwhile, economic tensions are rising in maritime regions around the world. From oil and gas to essential food items, prices of everything are increasing. There is only one reason for this: the vital passage through the Middle East on which the lifeline of the entire world depends—the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran has completely closed this path, and it is precisely at this juncture that Trump’s plan of “bombing that never forgets” comes into play. Let us see how this ongoing conflict in Iran can be ended. President Donald John Trump—aka DJT—had presented himself as a peacemaker until February. He has given himself credit for ending eight fights earlier also. Trump came to power on the promise that he would lead America out of conflicts around the world and, in doing so, “Make America Great Again.”
However, just as countries’ borders grew, so did Trump’s approach; He soon made it his goal to “make great” many countries, from Venezuela to Iran. On February 28, Trump, together with Israel, attacked Iran. During this time, he made several statements in which he asserted that *he* was the one who “forced Israel” to launch a war against Iran, or that he had “complete control” of the initial attack.
Trump’s fight destroyed the world economy
Although Trump has always seen himself as a peacemaker, he also firmly believes that he is the president of a country that leads the world—and is respected by the world. This thinking is clearly reflected in many of his policy decisions, whether it is imposing taxes or making trade agreements. Due to such actions of DJT, America’s diplomatic relations with many countries have deteriorated. Then, by provoking conflict in Iran, it has created an even bigger crisis—one whose effects are now being felt throughout the global economy. The supply of oil and gas has almost come to a standstill.
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is having the most serious impact on the countries that are directly connected to this important route. Big economies like India and China are also directly dependent on this route. As a result, while there is an inherent risk of worsening economic conditions in the immediate region, the effects are also being felt across Europe and Africa. The Strait of Hormuz is the world’s most important passage, carrying about 20 million barrels of oil per day—about 20 percent of global consumption. Apart from this, about 20 percent of the world’s Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) is also sent through this route.
A big crisis for the Gulf countries
This route is extremely important for big suppliers like Saudi Arabia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait and Qatar. China is the largest buyer of these resources. A large part of India’s oil and gas needs are also met by these Gulf countries. If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for a long time, supplies may come to a halt, which is likely to worsen the economic situation. Apart from this, European countries may have to face serious rising inflation. Interruptions in oil and gas supplies could lead to economic recession even within the Arab countries themselves. Economies such as Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait and Bahrain are heavily dependent on energy exports. These disruptions have necessitated production cuts, and the ongoing conflict has created fears that the economies in these countries will shrink significantly.
Apart from the Strait of Hormuz, both Qatar and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) have no other major alternative routes for gas exports. According to a report by the International Energy Agency, if the movement of ships stops, the global gas supply could decline by about 20 percent. If such a situation arises, those countries that depend on gas supplies from Qatar and the UAE will suffer the most serious consequences.
Opposition to Trump’s war on Iran
On the other hand, Iran is targeting the Gulf countries because American soldiers, weapons and airports are deployed there. Iran has warned that if there are more attacks on its oil sites, it will directly target the energy infrastructure of the Gulf countries. If this happens, it could prove disastrous for the entire world—and especially the Gulf countries.
Major global powers like Russia, China, Spain, Brazil and Türkiye have openly condemned Trump’s attacks on Iran. These countries argue that “unlawful military intervention” is not a fair solution to Iran’s nuclear or human rights issues. They fear that such a conflict could lead to a massive refugee crisis, devastate the oil infrastructure, and plunge the Middle East into prolonged instability. By now it has become clear how this conflict related to Iran is affecting the entire world. The economies of Asian and Gulf countries are under severe pressure—primarily due to Iran’s sanctions on the Strait of Hormuz.
America and Israel have already targeted several oil sites in Iran. In the most recent incident, Kharg Island was bombed. Announcing the operation himself, US President Trump said, “America has launched the largest attack in the history of the Middle East on Kharg Island. During this operation, many of Iran’s military bases were destroyed.” However, Trump also clarified that Iran’s oil infrastructure was not directly targeted. He stressed that this strategy would facilitate future negotiations and strengthen the campaign of diplomatic pressure. This makes it clear that Trump wants to avoid angering the Gulf countries.
How would the war with Iran proceed under Trump’s plan?
Let us now look at Trump’s strategic plan—the same blueprint under which he has promised to launch an “unforgettable attack” on Iran. However, since the conflict began, Trump has repeatedly changed his stance on the root causes of the conflict. Sometimes he claims that America has won the war; Sometimes he says that the conflict has reached a critical point much before the six-week deadline. On the other hand, Iran has put forward three conditions to end the war. Meanwhile, tensions remain in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has also attacked ships that tried to pass through the strait without permission. These included an American ship, and an Indian citizen was killed in the incident.
If this conflict escalates further, it could have two major consequences. The first possible outcome is that Iran could keep this vital waterway closed for a long time. Such a move could cripple the global economy to such an extent that the world’s major powers could come together to put pressure on US President Donald Trump, and force him to stop the war.
However, the second possible outcome could prove far more dangerous. Some observers speculate that—Iran keeping the waterway closed—may be exactly what the United States wants. There is an example of such a scenario in history. During the Iran–Iraq War, the United States supported Saddam Hussein. After this Saddam Hussein attacked Iran. Initially it seemed that they would have a quick and easy victory; However, as the war dragged on, the tide began to turn against them. It was at this juncture that he appealed to the United States for help. Nevertheless, the United States always needs a pretext—a justification—before directly intervening militarily.
As a result, a strategy was formulated. Saddam Hussein began attacking Iranian shipping, hoping to anger Iran and close the Strait of Hormuz—and thus give the United States the pretext needed to attack Iran. However, Iran’s supreme leader at the time, Ayatollah Khomeini, refrained from closing the waterway, and thus the United States did not get the justification it was looking for to launch an attack.
Given the current geopolitical landscape, some analysts believe that history may be repeating itself. If Iran keeps this strategic waterway closed, the global economy is certain to collapse. Gradually, countries around the world may find themselves uniting against Iran.