After a tremendous rise of about 65% in 2025, gold’s movement has not seen much growth in 2026. Despite periodic fluctuations, prices have remained near the levels at the beginning of the year. However, big investment bank JP Morgan is very positive (bullish) about gold. The bank estimates that the average price of gold could reach $6,000 per ounce by the fourth quarter of 2026 and reach around $6,300 per ounce by the end of 2027. Looking at the current levels, there is a potential gain of about 40%.
Why has the pace of gold slowed down in 2026?
The biggest challenge for gold this year has been the tension with Iran and the series of incidents that followed. Gold prices have fallen by about 20% since late February. Rising tensions between the US, Israel and Iran have pushed up crude oil prices, raising concerns of rising inflation. As a result, the market began to expect that the US Federal Reserve could keep interest rates high for a long time. There is no interest on gold; Therefore, when interest rates are high, investors turn to bonds and other return-yielding assets. This has put pressure on gold. Apart from this, due to reasons like Fed policies, strong dollar, inflation, geopolitical tensions and purchases by central banks, gold is trading in a limited range.
What does the technical condition indicate?
According to JPMorgan, gold is currently stuck between two important levels: strong support at the 200-day moving average and resistance near the 50-day moving average. As a result, many investors are taking a “wait and see” approach right now as the market tries to decide which direction gold will move from these levels.
So, why is such a big rally expected? The bank believes that there are many factors that can support gold in the long run. Inflation may remain high for a long time and the purchasing power of the dollar may weaken. The US faces increasing fiscal challenges, while global geopolitical tensions and polarization are increasing. There is also uncertainty regarding American policies. All these factors can support gold prices. Furthermore, central banks around the world are continuously buying gold, which is considered a major support for prices. **Iran peace deal could be a big trigger**
In the short term, a potential peace deal between the US and Iran could be the biggest trigger. If tensions between the two countries ease, both oil and dollar may come under pressure. The weakening of the dollar is generally considered good for gold, as it makes the metal cheaper for investors in other countries. However, if the agreement fails or tensions rise again, the market mood could change rapidly.
**How high can gold prices go in the Indian market?**
The main question for Indian investors is how much gold prices can rise in the domestic market if JP Morgan’s forecast proves correct. At present, gold is trading at around ₹1.53 lakh for 10 grams on MCX. JPMorgan’s $6,000 an ounce target is about 40% above current international prices. If the price of gold increases so much, then the price in the Indian market can reach ₹2.13 lakh for 10 grams.
**What should investors do next?**
JPMorgan believes that there is a possibility of a big jump in gold prices in the second half of 2026. However, many experts advise investors not to make rash purchases and suggest that it would be better to wait for technical indicators first.