Voting for the second—or rather, the final—phase of Bengal elections concluded on Wednesday. It is expected that exit polls will be released soon. It is noteworthy that Bengal elections are being considered as the most important electoral contest after the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. There is a special reason for this: This time BJP is competing with Mamata Banerjee. For the last 15 years, Bengal has been ruled by Mamata Banerjee. This time, a tough contest is expected between BJP and TMC. This is why stock market investors will keep a close eye on the election results.
According to stock market experts, investors are as keenly interested in the Bengal election results as they were in the Lok Sabha election results. Market analysts believe that if BJP is successful in hoisting the flag of victory in Bengal for the first time, then a huge surge can be seen in the stock market. This means that the Sensex can reach close to 81,500 points in one stroke.
On the contrary, if Mamata Banerjee comes to power again in Bengal, the Sensex may once again be seen slipping to the level of 76,000 or even below. If no single party gets absolute majority in the election results, the Sensex level may fall to 73,500 points. Let us now see how the stock market is likely to react based on the results of the Bengal elections.
If BJP comes to power
According to stock market expert Anuj Gupta, if on the day of election results it is known that BJP has got absolute majority and has come to power in Bengal, then the stock market may see a rally of up to 5 percent on that day. This means that if the Sensex is currently trading at 77,496.36 points, it could register a gain of 3,800 to 4,000 points from its current level. As a result, the Sensex figure could be seen anywhere between 81,300 to 81,500 points. According to experts, the current market sentiment regarding the strength of the stock market is inclined in favor of BJP coming to power. This is the basis of the estimate mentioned above.
TMC comes to power again
There may also be another scenario for the stock market on the day of results: TMC coming back to power. In such a situation, how will the stock market react? Anuj Gupta believes that this time TMC may not be as strong as it was before; Its number of seats may be reduced. In such a scenario—if the results still indicate TMC returning to power—the stock market could see a fall of 2 to 3 percent. This means that from the current levels, Sensex could fall by 1,550 to 1,700 points. In other words, Sensex may once again be seen trading in the range of 75,500 points.
If no party gets absolute majority
A third scenario may also emerge on the day of results. If the Congress and CPI perform better than expected—and manage to prevent both the BJP and TMC from reaching an absolute majority—then the stock market could see significant volatility. According to Anuj Gupta, if any one party does not succeed in gaining power alone, the stock market may fall by 5 percent. This means that from current levels, Sensex may see a fall of 3,800 to 4,000 points. As a result, the Sensex could be seen falling to the range of 74,000–73,500—just like what was seen on the day of Lok Sabha election results, when the BJP failed to win an absolute majority and the stock market fell by almost 9 per cent.
current stock market situation
Domestic markets closed higher on Wednesday after a volatile trading session amid strength in Asian markets and buying activity in stocks of FMCG (fast moving consumer goods), automotive and telecom sectors. BSE Sensex closed with a gain of 609 points, while NSE Nifty saw a rise of 182 points. BSE’s 30-share benchmark index, Sensex, closed 609.45 points—or 0.79 per cent—up at 77,496.36. During intraday trading, the index had climbed as high as 1,095.6 points at one point. Meanwhile, NSE’s 50-share benchmark index, Nifty, rose 181.95 points—or 0.76 per cent—to 24,177.65.
Among the companies included in the Sensex basket, shares of ITC Ltd, Tech Mahindra, Maruti Suzuki, Reliance Industries, Bharti Airtel and Mahindra & Mahindra closed with gains. In contrast, shares of InterGlobe Aviation, NTPC, Bajaj Finserv and ICICI Bank saw a decline. Shares of leading automobile manufacturer Maruti Suzuki closed 2.82 percent higher after positive earnings results. The company reported a record annual net profit of ₹14,679.5 crore for FY 2025-26.