According to Ian Bremmer, head of Eurasia Group and world-renowned risk analyst, the eagerly awaited trade deal between India and America may be finalized in the first six months of this year. He said that increasing tariffs on India by America may not be included in the list of major risks for India in 2026. According to Bremer, this issue is important in 2025, but its importance will be significantly reduced by 2026. In an exclusive interview, Ian Bremmer was asked about the timeline of the India-US trade deal. He clearly said, “India-US trade deal will be finalized in the first six months of this year.”
Negotiations have been going on for months
Talks on the India-US trade deal have been going on for several months, but relations between the two countries deteriorated in August 2025 when the US imposed 50 percent tariffs on India. This tariff was imposed due to India continuously purchasing oil from Russia. Prime Minister Narendra Modi last spoke to US President Donald Trump on December 11, soon after Russian President Vladimir Putin’s visit to India. Following the visit of US Deputy Trade Representative Rick Switzer to India in December, Union Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal said that talks on a trade deal with the US are in an advanced stage.
Donald Trump’s statement
Earlier today, President Donald Trump also said he has a good relationship with Prime Minister Modi, but there is disagreement over tariffs. Trump said, “I have a very good relationship with Prime Minister Modi, but he is not happy with me because India is paying higher tariffs. However, India has now significantly reduced its oil purchases from Russia.”
The constantly changing situation regarding trade deals and the absence of any fixed deadline has increased the pressure on Indian exporters, especially before the new financial year. The 50 percent tariff imposed by the US has badly affected many domestic export sectors of India. These include leather, chemicals, footwear, gems and jewellery, textiles and shrimp industries. It is expected that these areas will get relief in the coming days.