Crude oil has been discussed the most in the last 100 days. After the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, most countries around the world are facing oil crisis. Crude oil, which was earlier trading at $70-75 per barrel, has now crossed the level of $100-120 per barrel in the global market. There is pressure on both oil prices and supply. In this environment, global rating agency Fitch Ratings has released a new estimate for oil prices. Let us understand Fitch’s warning on crude oil prices…
Fitch has issued a new estimate for crude oil prices. According to Fitch, there will be no significant relief in Brent crude prices in 2026; The average price is expected to be around $87 per barrel. Meanwhile, between May and July, crude oil prices could range between $100 to $110 per barrel.
**Impact of reopening of the Strait of Hormuz on oil prices**
If Iran agrees to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and shipping traffic resumes, oil prices could fall slightly. If the strait reopens, prices could fall sharply from August and September.
**Oil price forecast for 2026**
According to Fitch, the average price of crude oil is expected to be around $87 per barrel in 2026. After August, oil prices may fall to $80 per barrel, and by September, they are expected to stabilize around $70 per barrel. This price decline is based on the assumption that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen in July. The rating agency believes the current surge is due to supply issues rather than a production shortage; There was no permanent damage to refineries and oil production facilities. Fitch estimates that over-supply of crude oil will begin in September after the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. OPEC and OPEC+ countries have also decided to increase production.
Hormuz emerged as a major obstacle for oil
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has had the biggest impact on oil. This route handles one-fifth of global oil supply, and its closure is affecting the movement of about 20 million barrels of oil every day. Although the strait is currently closed due to conflict, the oil reserves are safe; As a result, oil prices could fall sharply by the end of 2026 when supplies resume.