Source: UN News: Saturday, 04 April 2026 00:01 AM
If the military conflict in the Middle East continues in the coming days, it could lead to the loss of 3.6 million jobs in the Arab region and 4 million people to fall into poverty. The United Nations Development Program (UNDP) has warned in a new assessment that this crisis risks reversing the progress achieved after hard work. The United Nations Development Program has released a new study on Tuesday on the economic-social consequences of military conflict in the Middle East, in which these figures have been shared. UNDP According to, the violent conflict in the Middle East region has now entered its fifth week. Due to this, local economies may have to suffer a decline of 3.7 to 6 percent in their gross domestic product (GDP). This figure, representing a loss of 120 to 194 billion dollars, is more than the total growth recorded at the regional level in GDP in the year 2025. At the same time, the unemployment rate is estimated to be 4 percentage points, which represents a loss of 3.6 million jobs, i.e. more than the total jobs created in the region in 2025. If this happens, about 4 million people may be forced to sink into poverty. According to estimates, given the structural weaknesses in the region, even a short-term military conflict could give rise to serious economic and social challenges in the long run. Abdullah Ar Dardari, director of the Bureau for Arab Countries at the UN Development Programme, warned that this crisis is a cause for concern for countries located in the region. This moment could prove to be a turning point for development efforts in the region, and they will have to re-examine their policies. He stressed that economies need to move beyond dependence on hydrocarbons alone, diversify economic activities, secure trade and logistics systems, and broaden economic partnerships to avoid such shocks. © Unsplash/Nelemson Guevarra Dubai, United Arab Emirates. Disruption to economic activity: To understand the impact of the four-week-long violent conflict, a range of measures have been studied, including increased trade costs, temporary loss of productivity, and loss of capital: ranging from moderate disruption to extreme disruption, which would result in a 100-fold increase in trade costs and halt in oil and gas production. Estimates show that the greatest economic loss will be suffered by the Gulf region countries – Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman – and is concentrated in countries like Lebanon, Syria, Palestine, Jordan in the Levant sub-region. The disruption in economic activities and the turmoil in the energy markets have had a deep impact on investment, production and trade. There could be a loss of about 5.2 to 8.5 percent of GDP in both these sectors. Poverty levels are most likely to increase in the Levant sub-region and the least developed Arab countries, where conditions are particularly worrying and social security is compromised. An additional 28 to 33 million people could fall into poverty in the Levant. At the same time, the Human Development Index is also expected to decline by 0.2 to 0.4 percent, which shows the progress to be achieved in six months to 1 year.
