Despite the anti-incumbency wave, Rangaswami’s problems are less due to the division of the opposition.
Congress is being eyed within the opposition alliances in a tough electoral contest. The party has continuously tried to re-establish itself at the center of opposition politics in the elections from Haryana to Delhi and Bihar. But this effort is also showing conflict, distrust and tension within the alliances, whereas it was expected that these alliances would enter the field on the basis of mutual cooperation and respect. India block in Puducherry includes Congress, DMK, CPI, Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi. But even before the campaign started, cracks in the alliance have become clearly visible.
The talks on seat-sharing continued till the last day of filing of nominations and differences started becoming visible. Formal coordination was announced, but it soon became clear that there were many problems in the coordination. Congress candidates also filed nominations on those seats which had already been allotted to the alliance partners. After this many candidates refused to withdraw their names.
The result was that the alliance exists on paper, but has disintegrated on the ground. The seats where campaigning was expected to be carried out in coordination with the alliance partners are now reportedly witnessing a direct electoral contest between the allies.
The result was that confusion has spread among the voters. Voters are in a dilemma to choose between the alliance candidates. Every candidate is justifying himself and every election campaign is claiming himself to be the real representative of opposition politics. The confusion deepens when candidates change parties overnight; That means, the candidates who do not get tickets from one party immediately move to another party. In this way the credibility of the entire political process comes under question.
Amidst this chaos, Tamilaga Vetri Kazhagam (TVK) has emerged as a significant force for change. The party has taken advantage of the turmoil within the mainstream alliances and has fielded candidates on all 30 seats. They include a former minister, sitting MLA and several former MLAs. There are many leaders among them who, when they did not get tickets from one party, changed sides overnight. The rise of TVK is a result of the vacuum created by the turmoil within the traditional alliances.
This contradiction is most visible in Thattanchavady assembly constituency. Here Chief Minister N. Rangaswamy is contesting the elections to save his stronghold. He is facing anti-incumbency wave. His absence, especially in his constituency, remains a big issue. But internal divisions within the opposition may perhaps work in his favor.
This seat has been allotted to CPI in India Block. In the last three elections, this party had lost here by a very small margin. Therefore, CPI asked its state secretary A.M. Salim has been fielded, due to which this contest has become a tough one. But Congress Lok Sabha member, former Chief Minister and State Congress President V. Vaithilingam has also entered the fray here.
With the entry of Vaithilingam into the electoral fray, the contest in Thatnachavady has now become triangular. What could have been a challenge to unity has now turned into a scattered fight. N. This has brought strategic benefits for Rangaswami. Despite the anti-incumbency wave, the number of votes required for victory has reduced due to the division of the opposition. The contest which could have been tough earlier has now tilted in favor of the incumbent candidate. This is not the result of any thoughtful strategy, but the result of the mistakes of the opposition. Congress’s strategy in Puducherry is turning out to be a risky gamble, which is headed towards harming it.
The reason is the “friendly competition” idea. On paper, this seems like a smart political move. But elections are not fought only on paper. So, the “friendly fight” theory is proving problematic. When alliance partners compete with each other, they are dividing their vote bank, confusing voters, and weakening their collective ability to present a strong alternative.
The theory assumes that voters can perceive both coalition unity and competition at the same time. But this rarely happens. The voter wants to know clearly who is standing with whom and what is the meaning of his vote. When this candor ends, the entire foundation of the alliance begins to waver. A perfect example of this contradiction is visible in Puducherry in this election.
(The author is an independent journalist. Views are personal)