Fronts tied even before the announcement of election dates, DMK made Tamil pride an issue while it is do or die fight for AIADMK, the contest is likely to be three-sided due to the influx of TVK.
Voting for a total of 234 seats in the assembly elections in Tamil Nadu will be held in a single phase on April 23 and the results will be declared on May 4. However, even before the announcement of these dates, fronts had started forming. For example, Prime Minister Narendra Modi reached Tamil Nadu on the 11th, posters of the ruling DMK in many cities and towns are calling it a contest between NDA and Tamil Nadu. Chief Minister M.K. Stalin is trying to make it such that the entire Tamil Nadu is in competition with the NDA. They are trying to snatch away the Dravidian identity from the main rival AIADMK by making the narrative of Tamil identity and federal system an important front of the electoral battle. They are calling him part of a coalition that is allegedly standing against Tamil culture.
On the other hand, to counter this narrative, according to reports, BJP actor Vijay’s party has been trying to bring TVK into the NDA fold. The BJP reportedly offered TVK around 80 seats and promised that Vijay would be made the Deputy Chief Minister if the NDA won. However, the AIADMK was not comfortable with this and ultimately perhaps Vijay saw it as a loss for his Tamil identity. This has made the political scenario of the state even more interesting.
There is a lot at stake for both the rival alliances. Broadly speaking, the atmosphere is similar to the 2021 elections, when DMK returned to power after a decade. In 2021, AIADMK had an alliance with BJP. But from that point of view the political field has changed a lot.
An important and new development is the entry of actor Vijay’s party TVK into the fray. However, political pundits are currently doubtful as to what its electoral impact will be. It is certain that huge crowds are gathering in Vijay’s rallies. This is raising the question whether the crowd will convert into votes or are they just his fans who come to see him.
Chief Minister Stalin at a rally
Apart from this, there have also been some changes in the form of alliances. In the last election T.T.V. Dhinakaran’s party AMMK had contested the elections alone. This time it has joined NDA. On the other hand, late actor Vijayakanth’s party DMDK is with the DMK-led Secular Progressive Alliance.
In the last assembly elections, DMK had contested 173 seats out of total 234 and won 133 seats. He alone got majority. Its ally Congress had won 18 seats after fighting on 25 seats. Left parties CPI(M) and CPI had won two seats each after contesting on six seats. MDMK had won four seats.
AIADMK is struggling with internal strife. The party is headed by former Chief Minister J. The race for power that started after Jayalalithaa’s death went through many dramatic turns. Therefore, former Chief Minister O. Panneerselvam left the party and joined DMK last month.
DMK and Chief Minister Stalin have been vocal critics of the Modi government. He has been taking on issues related to the federal system in the country. Former Governor R.N. Stalin’s confrontation with Ravi is much discussed among the people. Stalin also approached the Supreme Court against Ravi’s attitude of keeping the bills passed in the Assembly pending. The court fixed the deadline for decision on the bills. The issue later led to a presidential reference being sent to the court. Legal debate still continues regarding the scope of the Governor’s powers. In this way, by presenting himself as a strong supporter of federalism, Stalin has tried to position himself as a defender of Tamil identity and state rights.
Apart from the political narrative, the DMK has also relied heavily on its welfare programs during the last five years. Among the recent initiatives was the transfer of an amount of Rs 5,000 to the bank accounts of about 1.3 crore women. The party has promised that if returned to power, it will double the monthly assistance amount given under the ‘Kalainar Magalir Urimai Togai’ scheme to Rs 2,000.
DMK has an edge in coordination
After uncertainty and confusion, DMK and Congress have finally decided on their seat sharing formula. This time Congress will get three more seats than the previous 25 seats. After that, DMK is also finalizing the seat sharing with other allies of its led ‘Secular Progressive Alliance’. The talks with Congress were very bitter. The main reason for this is that some Congress leaders believe that their party has not benefited much from the alliance with DMK. Currently, the CPI(M) is upset over five seats instead of six and a Dravidian regional party has decided to fight separately on seat sharing.
However, both Congress and DMK are united in opposing the BJP. But political developments related to Vijay’s party TVK have created dissatisfaction in some circles of the Congress. Some senior leaders had reportedly floated the idea of an alliance with TVK away from DMK. They believed that this move would strengthen the Congress in Tamil Nadu, but most of the MLAs supported continuing the alliance with the DMK.
AIADMK’s dilemma
This election is like do or die for AIADMK, which has been struggling with leadership competition and defection for a long time. The current leader of the party is Edappadi K. Palaniswami will have to prove that despite the separation of many senior leaders, the party is the main political platform of the anti-DMK forces. The situation has been complicated by the BJP’s aggressive efforts to expand its support base in the state and establish itself as the DMK’s main rival. AIADMK has to maintain its position as the major opposition force.
Former Chief Minister O. Panneerselvam’s (OPS) move to DMK may also impact the election results. OPS has a strong hold among the Mukkulator community in parts of southern Tamil Nadu. This community has been leaning towards AIADMK since the last elections. What impact the OPS’s switch to the other side has on the votes of this community is a matter of discussion. Internal tensions have also emerged within the NDA in the state. Relations between AIADMK and AMMK are strained, but Dinakaran expressed hope for a united fight after speaking to Union Home Minister Amit Shah in Delhi recently.
BJP’s bet
High expectations from TVK party’s victory in Tamil Nadu assembly elections
From the post of State President. After the removal of Annamalai, BJP is also facing organizational challenges. It is being told that there is a rift between State Chief Nainar Nagendran and Annamalai. According to some political experts, BJP is probably thinking ahead of the current contest. The party is eyeing preparing the ground for the 2031 assembly elections. The party hopes that by then it will turn the political contest in Tamil Nadu into a direct fight between DMK and BJP and marginalize AIADMK. Therefore, the challenge before the AIADMK is twofold. On the one hand, it has to counter the perception that the BJP is trying to assimilate it, on the other hand, it has to maintain its alliance with the BJP to effectively challenge the DMK. The third angle in this is that of TVK. Vijay has called DMK a political enemy and BJP an ideological opponent, but TVK leader N. Anand recently met some BJP leaders. Therefore, his role will be monitored.
Whether the competition will be two-way or three-way, it depends on TVK. One thing is certain that politics in Tamil Nadu is on the threshold of change.
