Before the official announcement of Bihar assembly elections, Magadh region, which is also considered to be the entrance of the state, has become the center of political activities. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Home Minister Amit Shah, Congress leader Rahul Gandhi and Prashant Kishore of Jan Suraj, Prashant Kishore, have come to the area and played their election Dundubhi. The continuous tour of these leaders has made it clear that elections are near, even if it took some more time in the announcement. All major parties have begun to finalize their preparations internally. Election equations of five districts of Magadh region – Aurangabad, Gaya, Jehanabad, Arwal and Nawada are going to be quite interesting in 2025.
2020 electoral mathematics and NDA challenge
There are a total of 26 assembly seats in these five districts of Magadh division. According to the 2020 election results, electoral figures show that out of these, there are MLAs of Grand Alliance and NDA MLA Padarudh in only 7 seats. As percent of NDA MLAs, such a low number clearly indicates that the 2025 election will present a big challenge for all NDA constituent parties, and they will have to put huge emphasis to increase their number of seats.
Demonstration of constituents and success of Jeetan Ram Manjhi
Demonstration within NDA was mixed in 2020 elections:
JDU (JDU): JDU led the NDA by contesting 11 out of 26 seats of Magadha, but did not win a single seat. Even his son Rahul was defeated by CPI Male in Ghosi, which is considered to be the stronghold of JDU leader Jagdish Sharma. However, Manorama Devi’s victory from Belaganj in the November 2024 by-election opened JDU’s account in this division.
BJP (BJP): BJP fielded candidates for 10 seats and won three of the ten seats in the four districts of Magadh division (except Jehanabad).
We (Ham): The most successful party in NDA was Jitan Ram Manjhi’s ‘Hum’. It fielded five candidates in Gaya, Jehanabad, Aurangabad and won three seats. In the 2024 by-election, Deepa Manjhi, daughter-in-law of Jitan Ram Manjhi, again became MLA in Imamganj seat. RJD was the strongest in the Grand Alliance camp, which maintained a good grip in Aurangabad (4), Nawada (3), Jehanabad-Arwal (3) and Gaya (4), while Male won two seats in Arwal and Jehanabad.
Equation can be changed to 2025
The election of 2025 is going to be special in many ways, and many signs of change are seen now:
Aurangabad: NDA, who does not win a single seat in 2020, can perform something well this time and claims at least two seats.
Nawada: Here the equation can be changed by the ticket reshuffle.
Gaya: Jitan Ram Manjhi’s ‘Hum’ party in Gayaji (10 Assembly) is dominating three seats. In the recent NDA conference, Jitan Ram Manjhi has openly blessed his seating MLA (Tikari, Imamganj and Barachatti). ‘We’ can also run campaigns in other areas when more seats from the NDA alliance.
Seat sharing challenge: JDU has opened an account in the by -election and will claim more seats this time. The BJP is also holding two seats (Gaya Urban and Wazirganj) and is eyeing some other areas. In such a situation, seat sharing between us, JDU, BJP and LJP will be a big challenge. Election fragrance in Magadha’s soil has reached almost all parties and the 2025 match is expected to be very tough.