PM Modi Purnia Rally: Purnia’s visit to Prime Minister Narendra Modi before the Bihar assembly elections is not just a rally but a part of a deep political strategy. Purnia and its surrounding Seemanchal region has been a ‘political arena’ for the BJP where the party’s performance has always been unstable. Sometimes a fierce victory and sometimes a crushing defeat. PM Modi has given a big message by starting his election campaign from this ‘unstable’ stronghold. Will this visit completely change the fate of BJP in this region?
Seemanchal’s ‘strange’ political mathematics
The electoral history of four districts of Seemanchal- Araria Purnia Katihar and Kishanganj has been like a puzzle for the BJP.
Katihar: BJP’s performance in this district is the most shocking. In 2010, the party won 5 out of 7 seats with 100% strike rate here. But in 2015, this strike rate declined to just 33%. In 2020, the BJP again returned to win three seats.
Araria: Araria has proved to be a ‘good ground’ for the BJP. The party’s strike rate in the last five assembly elections was never less than 50%. In 2020, BJP won 3 out of 4 seats while in 2015, 2 out of 4 and 4 out of 5 in 2010 won.
Kishanganj: Kishanganj remains a ‘forbidden region’ for the BJP. From 2005 to 2020, BJP has not won a single seat here.
Purnia: Importance of ‘Swing District’
The Purnia district in which PM Modi rally has been a ‘swing district’. In 2010, BJP’s strike rate was 80% but in 2015 it declined to 40%. However, in 2020, the party returned again to achieve a 67% strike rate. 7 seats of Purnia are very important for victory in this region, which is why PM Modi started his Bihar election campaign from here. PM Modi’s Purnia tour is not just an election rally but a well-planned strategy to understand the complex political ground of this region and create an atmosphere in favor of BJP. It will now be seen whether PM Modi’s charisma will be able to win a permanent victory for the BJP in this ‘unstable’ region.
