Washington, April 14 (IANS). The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has said that the impact of rapidly growing Artificial Intelligence (AI) technology is not yet clearly visible in global productivity data, although this technology has the potential to significantly boost economic growth in the coming years.
During a group interview with journalists from India, Japan, the UAE, the Netherlands and Chile, IMF Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinches said the impact of AI is not yet visible in current macroeconomic data.
“According to our assessment, we do not see any significant improvement in productivity from AI in the data available so far,” he said.
He also acknowledged that there has been rapid progress in technology, but its widespread use is still limited.
“We’re impressed by the technological advances, but we don’t see the big economic impact yet,” Gourinchas said.
However, the IMF believes that AI can become a big positive factor for economic development in the future. According to them, this could increase productivity growth by 0.1 to 0.4 percent every year, while some estimates are even higher.
But he warned that there may be some challenges during this change, especially in the field of employment.
He said there are early signs that there is a slight slowdown in hiring, especially for entry-level jobs, which reflects the impact of AI.
Although he rejected the possibility of permanent large-scale unemployment, he said that the nature of jobs will change significantly in the future.
“We don’t believe AI will lead to mass unemployment, but the jobs ahead will be very different,” he said.
He also said that there may be inequality during the transition, because new jobs are not fully created before old jobs are lost.
Another major concern raised by the IMF is that excessive investment and increased valuation in the AI sector may also create a risk of financial instability.
Gourinchas further said that right now many companies are raising funding on a large scale, whereas it is possible that only a few companies may survive in the market and the rest may close down.
He warned that this could lead to a large decline in market valuations, as had previously happened during the dot-com bubble.
If more debt is involved in these investments, it may impact the banking system as well.
It is clear from this assessment of IMF that while AI has immense potential, there are also many risks associated with it.
At present, there is hope regarding technological progress, but it is not yet clear when and how much its real benefit will be achieved.
Policymakers and businesses are focusing on reskilling workers so they can adapt to changing job requirements, while regulatory bodies are keeping an eye on potential risks in the market.
As the use of AI increases, its long-term impact will depend on how countries handle these opportunities and challenges.
–IANS
DBP
