New Delhi, June 5 (IANS). The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Friday has estimated the GDP growth rate at 6.6 percent. However, the central bank has warned that prolonged disruptions in global supply chains, instability in international financial markets and weather-related risks could put pressure on the country’s economic growth.
“Real GDP growth this year is estimated at 6.6 per cent,” RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra said during his much-awaited monetary policy announcement.
“Earlier we had estimated 6.9 per cent. Now we estimate 6.6 per cent for Q1, 6.3 per cent for Q2, 6.5 per cent for Q3 and 6.8 per cent for Q4,” the RBI governor said after the three-day MPC meeting.
Governor Sanjay Malhotra said PMI data for India’s manufacturing and services sectors indicate that both sectors remain strong. The confidence of businessmen also remains positive and a good situation is being seen in demand.
He said that private consumption still remains strong, which is being supported by increased spending by consumers. Apart from this, despite the increase in costs, there is good momentum in private and government investment. Goods exports recorded strong growth in April 2026, while freight and insurance costs still remained at high levels.
According to RBI, exports of services also remain strong. Despite global concerns about Artificial Intelligence (AI), Indian services remain in demand in the international market. This is providing additional support to the Indian economy.
The Governor said that till now the Indian economy has largely absorbed the impact of ongoing tensions and global challenges in West Asia, although the impact of rising costs is gradually becoming visible.
Along with this, RBI has estimated the Consumer Price Index (CPI) based inflation rate for the financial year 2026-27 at 5.1 percent. On a quarterly basis, inflation is estimated to be 4.2 percent in the first quarter, 5.1 percent in the second quarter, 5.9 percent in the third quarter and 5.4 percent in the fourth quarter.
The central bank believes that at present inflation remains below the RBI target level because the full impact of international prices has not reached the domestic markets. However, inflation may reach near the upper tolerable limit in the third quarter.
RBI has estimated core inflation at 4.7 percent for the financial year 2026-27. However, factors such as global supply chain disruptions, rising commodity prices, monsoon uncertainty and El Nino could pose upside risks to inflation.
Governor Sanjay Malhotra said that a weaker than normal south-west monsoon and the possibility of El Nino also remain a matter of concern for the economy and inflation. However, adequate stocks of food grains in the country and satisfactory water levels in reservoirs provide some relief.
RBI believes that India’s economy remains resilient despite global uncertainties and rising costs. Strong domestic demand, investment activities, exports and stability of the services sector will play an important role in taking the country’s growth journey forward. However, the central bank has indicated that inflation and global conditions will continue to be monitored in the coming months.
–IANS
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