With this mandate, will the issues of employment, migration, education, health, reservation become secondary, is a new form of politics emerging after the Mandal era?
It was certain that the result of Bihar elections was going to change the political trend of the entire country. The preparation from all sides was such that it was less or not seen in recent times. There was definitely something historical, not only from the ruling and opposition side, it was as if the umpire was determined to register himself in history by saying that we are the most constitutional, we are the most right. And this became a big issue. The rest of the political-social-economic issues were breaking the embankments like the catastrophic flood of Kosi river, which is called the sorrow of Bihar. His edge was sharp and since the elections of 2020, there was such a surge in it that the hopes of changing the politics completely and drawing a new line in a new role were rising. The voting figures (67.4 percent) also touched the peak in the history of Azad Bihar. But what came out of the EVM was so “unnatural, defying understanding” that even the biggest political and election pundits were left stunned and confused.
The result was as if the surging flood had taken a U-turn and the tide had been managed. The issues vanished. Unemployment, migration, jobs, employment, paper leaks, corruption, deteriorating education-health system, reservation, oppression of Dalits and women, increasing incidents of crime, all have been silenced or stopped. The issue of paper leak in BPSC and Railway recruitment had created chaos on the streets of the capital Patna and Bihar for months. The youth had to face heavy lathicharge from the police. But when the mandate came, it seemed as if nothing had happened. Chief Minister Nitish Kumar and others emerged as ‘good governance babus’ and took the entire NDA clan to a new level. All this was reflected not only in the huge number of victories (202 seats out of 243, 83 percent strike rate) but also in the highest margin since the 1952 elections, whereas Bihar has almost always had a close contest compared to other states.
Migrant Bihari residents going to other states for livelihood
Dipankar Bhattacharya, general secretary of CPI (ML), a component of the opposition grand alliance, is calling this “unnatural, beyond comprehension”. However, no reaction was seen from big leaders of RJD or Congress. The newly-arrived Jan Suraj, who challenged the mainstream politics and raised the issue of employment, migration and Bihari self-respect, was so defeated that its patron Prashant Kishor kept postponing the press conference. Party President Uday Pratap Singh did point out that the NDA government distributed dole worth Rs 40,000 crore in recent months, which added to the rising debt of the state, which is a gross violation of the election code of conduct.
So, did the voters of Bihar like ‘Khairat’ more than ‘Swabhiman’? It is being argued that a lump sum amount of Rs 10,000 was given to women under the Chief Minister Employment Assistance Scheme on the last day of voting, the situation was reversed. According to the data, women (about 72 percent) cast more votes than men (63 percent). The umpire i.e. the Election Commission turned a blind eye to the distribution of money to women. The opposition and other political analysts continued to criticize. During the SIR on the Commission, questions were also raised on deletion of names of 69 lakh voters from the final list till September 30 and addition of about 22 lakh names (according to its press note, there were about 14 lakh new applications). Apart from this, questions were also raised on the addition of names of about 3 lakh people in the figures released after voting after the publication of the list of September 30 on October 6. Earlier the number of voters in Bihar was said to be 7.42 crore, which became 7.45 lakh in the press note of November 11.
The argument is also that the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) lost badly twenty years ago because of its past record of ‘Jungle Raj’, and that the sympathy votes Nitish Kumar received due to good governance over the last two decades and declining health gave the NDA an edge. But neither of these reasons are sufficient to explain this massive mandate. The Grand Alliance lagging behind by just 0.03 percent or 12,000 votes in the 2020 elections does not indicate that the sentiments of two decades ago remain strong even today. Apart from this, the way crime incidents took place in Patna and many other places in the last few months of this year, they are also telling a new story.
As far as the economic front is concerned, has Bihar’s performance been better since 2020? There is no evidence of this. Of course, roads and electricity have improved. This has been going on for many years. But due to corruption, the quality of infrastructure is quite poor. For example, newly built or under construction bridges are collapsing. Then, are minor improvements in infrastructure enough to make people vote for the ruling NDA on such a large scale?
Bihar remains the poorest state in the country. The unemployment rate is the highest and is increasing. Dependence on agriculture for employment remains, industries are declining. A large number of people are forced to migrate to other states in search of employment. According to pre-Covid estimates, 65 percent of families are dependent on outside earnings. This migration started on a large scale from the eighties-nineties, when agriculture started facing crisis. All this is recorded in the story Bhaiya Express by the famous litterateur of that era, Arun Kumar. In the post-Mandal era, be it Lalu Prasad or Nitish Kumar, the solution was to run a few trains and refused to consider migration as an issue. A decade later, mass migration has started taking place for education and treatment. After 2014, these situations have increased manifold.
So, what changed between 2020 and 2025, that the election which was earlier considered to be a close contest, turned into a crushing defeat for the opposition? Most of all, how these issues have slipped from people’s minds. There was no significant change in the condition of the average person in Bihar. But the ruling NDA’s vote has increased from 37.3 per cent to 46.6 per cent, while the Grand Alliance’s vote has barely increased from 37.2 per cent to 37.9 per cent.
Moreover, turnout increased in 2025 (67 percent) compared to the 2020 assembly elections (57.3 percent) and 2019 Lok Sabha elections (57.3 percent). If there were no basic issues in the minds of the voters, then what are the reasons that about ten percent more people came out to vote. According to a Congress leader, it is also worth noting that in 2020, queues were seen till late evening, but this time despite the huge increase in voting, less long lines were seen in the evening.
The difference this time was that the NDA government gave a lot of free schemes to the people both just before and during the elections. The opposition, especially Tejashwi Yadav, also promised a government job in every family, but it was just a promise, while the government was distributing the money.
This model of depositing lump sum amount in the account just before the elections was earlier introduced by the government party in Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra, where the opposition was badly defeated. Before that, just before the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, an amount of Rs 6,000 was deposited in the accounts of farmers across the country under the Kisan Samman Nidhi since last few months. However, Delhi’s Aam Aadmi Party government was not allowed to start the scheme of depositing money in women’s accounts before the elections.
Not only this, these election results also present a picture of change in Bihar, especially after three and a half decades of Mandal politics. The most important thing is the issue of reservation. In 2023, the Grand Alliance government led by Nitish conducted a caste survey and sent a proposal to the Center to increase the reservation limit to 65 percent, which got stuck in the court. It seems that that issue also became secondary this time. Apart from this, after the nineties, the number of MLAs belonging to about 12 per cent of Agra population reached 58, while only 28 MLAs of Yadavs, who constituted more than 13 per cent of the population, won. Similarly, the number of MLAs from extremely backward and Dalits also decreased.
In this way, the death of issues means the meaninglessness of the influence of public opinion on democracy and politics. Earlier, due to the results of Haryana elections, the issue of legal guarantee of MSP to farmers has also become moot. So, will the elections become a mere symbol of short-term concessions rather than the long-term issues of the people? This question has been raised most acutely by the mandate of Bihar.
