New Delhi, April 14 (IANS). With the US military beginning the blockade of Iran’s ports, about 2 million barrels of Iranian oil are expected to be taken out of global markets every day. According to reports, this will increase pressure on global supply and prices of petroleum products may increase further.
Bineet Banka, an analyst tracking the sector at Nomura, wrote in his note that a complete blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could also affect LPG supplies to India. In the last one month, India has made at least 8 LPG tankers transit safely through this route.
At the same time, US President Donald Trump has also announced that America will not allow any ship to pay toll to Iran to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Although India has not imposed any toll for its LPG vessels recently, there remains uncertainty regarding the future situation.
“If this conflict prolongs, the ability to balance supply from the Strategic Petroleum Reserves may gradually weaken, leading to further increases in oil prices,” Nomura said in a note.
Meanwhile, there are reports that the US and Iran are considering a second round of talks after weekend talks led by US Vice President JD Vance in Islamabad, Pakistan failed to yield any results. For this reason, the prices of crude oil reached $ 107 per barrel on Monday, although on Tuesday, due to the expectation of possible talks, the prices again fell below $ 100 per barrel.
In the last one week, the prices of Brent crude have increased by 6.5 percent and reached around $ 98 per barrel.
Nomura believes that the ‘war risk premium’ in oil prices could increase further due to the failure of peace talks.
If America completely closes the Strait of Hormuz, the global oil supply situation may worsen.
The rise in oil prices in recent weeks has compensated for the decline in Saudi Arabia’s exports. Saudi Arabia’s oil income has increased by 4 percent on an annual basis in March 2026.
According to reports, Saudi Arabia has achieved full capacity of 7 million barrels per day through its East-West Pipeline, which bypasses the Strait of Hormuz and reaches the Red Sea.
It is estimated that 2 million barrels of this will be used in domestic refineries, while about 5 million barrels may remain available for export, which is more than 4.4 million barrels in March 2026.
At the same time, UAE has also performed better than other Gulf countries, where only a slight decline of 3 percent was recorded in oil revenue.
According to Banka’s estimates, Iran has gained the most in terms of oil revenues since the war began. Iran’s oil income increased by 36 percent on an annual basis to reach $ 5.7 billion in March 2026.
–IANS
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