New Delhi/Chennai, July 14 (). The southwest monsoon currently remains weak over southern peninsular India, due to which many states are recording below normal rainfall. According to the Meteorological Department’s Regional Meteorological Center (RMC), Chennai, the current weather conditions have affected monsoon activities over Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and adjoining areas. However, after July 17, the monsoon is expected to gradually improve and rain activities will increase.
According to meteorologists, the main reason behind the weakening of monsoon is the weakening of the south-westerly winds crossing the equator. Due to this, the ‘low-level jet’ or ‘Somali jet’ formed over the western Arabian Sea remains weaker than normal. Apart from this, El Nino-like conditions developing in the Pacific Ocean are also affecting the monsoon.
Due to these reasons, there has been a decrease in the moisture coming from the Arabian Sea, due to which the expected rainfall is not occurring in many parts of South India. Cloud formation is also decreasing due to weak monsoon circulation and downward flow of air in the atmosphere (subsidence). As a result, due to clear skies in most areas, the sun’s rays are reaching the surface directly, due to which the maximum temperature is being recorded higher than normal.
In view of this situation, the Regional Meteorological Centre, Chennai has issued a heat wave warning for the interior districts of Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh and parts of Telangana. The Meteorological Department says that people in these areas should take necessary precautions to avoid extreme heat.
However, the good news is that the ‘low-level jet’ is likely to gradually strengthen around July 17, according to the Indian Meteorological Department’s (IMD) GFS (12 km) model analysis. Due to this, the flow of moisture from the Arabian Sea will increase and the south-west monsoon will start becoming active again.
The Meteorological Department estimates that after July 17, rainfall activities will increase in Kerala, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and surrounding areas. Due to increase in rain and cloud cover, the temperature will also drop and the heat wave situation will gradually end.
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