New Delhi, April 9 (). The gross merchandise value (GMV) of India’s online retail market is expected to increase to $65-66 billion by 2025 and may reach $170-180 billion by 2030 with a growth rate of about 20 percent on an annual basis. This information was given in the report released on Thursday.
According to reports by Bain & Company and Flipkart, GMV of e-retail is expected to grow by 19-21 percent by value in 2025.
The report said the uptrend continued throughout the year due to better economic conditions and consumer sentiment.
Private consumption is expected to grow by 10.5 per cent in 2025, mainly due to GST cuts, income tax relief, reduction in inflation and falling interest rates.
This momentum has led to growth of 22-24 per cent in the second half and an estimated 23-25 per cent in the first quarter of 2026, reflecting a recovery in consumption and discretionary spending.
The report notes that quick-commerce (delivery in less than 30 minutes) has doubled annually over the past two years, reaching GMV of $10-11 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach $65-70 billion by 2030.
However, the share of traditional e-retail in the e-retail market will remain at 60-65 percent by 2030.
India is emerging as an important global consumption hub, set to contribute $1 out of every $8 in consumption growth over the next five years.
The number of buyers has more than doubled in the last five years to 290-300 million by 2025 due to the rapid expansion of the seller ecosystem and increased geographic reach.
Gen Z represented 40-45 per cent of e-retail buyers and contributed almost half of e-retail orders in 2025, with spending per shopper in metro cities growing 2.5 times faster than other groups.
Manan Bhasin, partner, Bain & Company, said, “With Quick Commerce, shopping behavior is different and checkout speeds are faster and conversions are higher. Shopping sessions last less than five minutes, which is half that of traditional e-commerce.”
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