There has been a ceasefire (ceasefire) between Iran and America for 60 days, which will remain in force for 60 days. But the question is what will happen after these 60 days? What will happen if there is no agreement between the two countries? Will inflation increase again? Will there be new shortages of oil and gas? Most importantly, what impact will this have on India?
**What will be the impact on India?**
Rating agency CRISIL has recently released new data which reveals possible future situations. According to CRISIL estimates, the impact of this conflict on the profits of Indian companies will be much less than earlier estimates. It is now expected that the operating profits of companies will decline by about 1% in the 2026-27 financial year.
Earlier estimates had said that if the conflict prolonged and disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, profits could fall by 2%. The new estimate comes as shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has resumed following the ceasefire, leading to a decline in crude oil prices. However, CRISIL has said that the tension in the Middle East has not completely ended and it may take some time for the gas supply to normalize.
**Will crude oil prices increase?**
According to CRISIL report, the average price of Brent crude oil is expected to be between $80 to $85 per barrel during this financial year. At the same time, interruptions in gas supply may continue for about four months.
**Sectors to be affected**
Initially 22 sectors were expected to be affected, but now this number has come down to 10. Sectors under pressure include:
Aviation
ceramics
flexible packaging
Specialty Chemicals
polyester fabric
diamond polishing
These industries may face challenges related to high cost and supply of raw materials. Oil marketing companies (OMCs) are expected to benefit the most from the fall in crude oil prices. Fertilizer companies may also benefit from cheaper crude oil and lower energy costs. According to CRISIL, the profits of these companies are likely to improve due to the fall in oil prices.
