There is a political tussle going on in Mumbai over the election of a new mayor after the election results of Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC), which is the richest municipal corporation in Asia. The alliance of Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena got a clean majority in the 227-member BMC, with the BJP and Shiv Sena winning 89 and 29 seats respectively. Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena (UBT) won 65 seats, while its ally Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) got 6 seats. Congress party won 24 seats. After the BMC results, it was believed that this time the Mahayuti alliance will have a mayor in BMC.
However, after the election results, a power struggle has started for the post of Mayor. Shiv Sena has shifted 29 of its members to a hotel in Mumbai. The party claims that the move is for a workshop aimed at acquainting them with the functioning of BMC, the country’s richest municipal body. However, political analysts are calling it a strategy of pressure politics.
Amidst the ongoing political turmoil for the Mayor elections after the BMC results, it is important to understand the possibilities based on the results. Let’s analyze the political dynamics of the mayor election after the BMC election results:
1. Grand Alliance (BJP + Shinde + Ajit Pawar): This is the strongest possibility at the moment, but with “conditions”! The ongoing “hotel politics” clearly shows that things will not be that simple!
2. Maha Vikas Aghadi + Shinde: This option is possible only if Shinde completely breaks ties with BJP, which would be a big political risk for him at this time.
3. BJP + Uddhav: If BJP (89) and Uddhav Thackeray’s group (65) join hands, their combined strength will be 154, which is much more than the majority figure (114). BJP will contact Uddhav Thackeray only when Eknath Shinde’s demands become too difficult or there is a fear of Shinde’s councilors changing sides. The first condition for Uddhav Thackeray joining hands with BJP could be a power-sharing arrangement for the mayor’s post, with each party holding the post for two-and-a-half years, as was the contention during the 2019 assembly elections. If BJP and Eknath Shinde are unable to reach an agreement on the mayor’s post and power-sharing, then what political situations and alliance options can emerge in Mumbai politics?
Shinde’s first attempt will be to put pressure on BJP. He can use his 29 corporators as kingmakers and insist on the mayor’s post for two and a half years or the chairmanship of the powerful standing committee of BMC.
If Shinde separates from BJP, Shiv Sena (UBT), Congress and Sharad Pawar’s NCP can provide outside support to Shinde or propose an alliance with him. Its only objective will be to keep BJP out of power in the country’s richest municipal corporation.
Another option could be that the Shinde faction abstains from voting during the mayor elections. If Shinde’s 29 corporators do not participate in the voting, the magic figure in the House will be reduced, making it more difficult for the BJP to win.
The possibility of a reunion of old friends?
Although it is very difficult, the doors of possibilities are always open in politics. To stop BJP, both factions of Shiv Sena (UBT and Shinde) may consider coming together under the banner of making a Shiv Sainik the mayor, as the opposition has been continuously hinting.
Congress (24 seats) will not want a BJP mayor at any cost. In such a situation, they can consider supporting anyone who takes on BJP, be it Uddhav Thackeray or Eknath Shinde.
Raj Thackeray’s MNS (6 seats), despite having lower numbers, is considered close to the BJP. If Shinde steps away, BJP will try to increase its numbers by including other independents and MNS.