A new opinion poll has given some important indications regarding the upcoming assembly elections in West Bengal. According to this survey, Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee’s party, TMC, can once again return to power and form the government for the fourth consecutive time. However, the number of seats won this time is expected to be less than the previous elections. In this survey conducted by ‘VoteVibe’, TMC is expected to get around 174 to 184 seats in the 294-seat assembly. Since 148 seats are required for majority in the state, it means TMC can easily get majority.
BJP’s performance is expected to improve. According to the survey, BJP may win 108 to 118 seats—this figure is higher than previous estimates. In contrast, Congress and Left parties do not seem to be making any significant impact this time; According to estimates, they are likely to get only 0 to 4 seats. Earlier, in a survey released on March 23, TMC was projected to get 184 to 194 seats, while BJP was projected to get 98 to 108 seats; But, the new survey is indicating BJP’s position being stronger, while TMC’s number of seats has been estimated slightly less.
How many seats did TMC win in the 2021 elections?
If we look at the 2021 elections, TMC formed the government by winning 215 seats, while BJP got 77 seats. The new survey suggests that while TMC is set to remain in power this time, BJP may emerge as a stronger opposition force than before. Sectoral analysis shows that competition may be extremely tough in certain areas. BJP seems to be gaining in Midnapore region, while TMC seems to be in a strong position in Presidency and Malda regions. The performance of these particular areas can have a deep impact on the final results of the election. Talking about the face of the Chief Minister, Mamata Banerjee remains the most favorite leader; The survey shows that 46.4 percent people have voted in his favor, while BJP’s Suvendu Adhikari has got the support of 34.9 percent people. Congress’s Adhir Ranjan Choudhary and CPM’s Mohammad Salim are lagging far behind him.
What is the most important issue for voters?
The most important issues for voters are unemployment and development—35.1 percent said both were most important. After these come law and order and women’s safety, and then come issues related to voter list, inflation and other concerns. People have mixed opinions regarding government schemes also. Regarding the schemes made especially for the youth, 53.6 percent people said that these will not solve the problem of unemployment. Voting trends on the basis of religion and caste are also clearly visible; Muslim voters are joining TMC in large numbers, while BJP is getting more support from SC/ST and upper caste Hindu voters. People’s opinion is also divided regarding the functioning of the state government; Some people consider it good, while a large number of people consider it bad.
