Jharkhand Rajya Sabha Election: The political atmosphere in Jharkhand is very heated amid voting for two Rajya Sabha seats. The electoral contest is not being limited to just two seats, rather it is being seen as a test of the political strength and unity of the MLAs of the ruling INDIA alliance and the opposition NDA in the state. A total of three candidates are in the fray in the Rajya Sabha elections. There is a contest between Baidyanath Ram of Jharkhand Mukti Morcha, Pranab Jha of Congress and BJP-backed independent candidate Parimal Nathwani. Political analysts believe that the victory of Baidyanath Ram on the first seat is considered almost certain, while for the second seat there can be a tough fight between Congress candidate Pranab Jha and NDA supported Parimal Nathwani.
What does the mathematics of assembly say?
To win the Rajya Sabha elections in the 81-member Jharkhand Assembly, any candidate needs 28 first preference votes. Currently INDIA alliance has 56 MLAs, while NDA has 24 MLAs. On the basis of numerical strength, the Grand Alliance is claiming victory on both the seats. If all the MLAs of the alliance remain united and there are no technical errors in the voting, then it may be easy for it to win both the seats. However, political elections are not just a game of statistics and sometimes cross voting or invalidation of votes changes the entire equation.
Why is the contest for the second seat important?
The voting process in Rajya Sabha elections is different from normal elections. There is open voting in this and the MLAs have to show their votes to the authorized agent of their party. In such a situation, any kind of mistake or indiscipline can affect the election results. That is why the contest on the second seat is being considered very interesting. There is discussion that this election will not be decided only by numerical strength, but by the loyalty of the MLAs and the unity of the alliance. Both the parties have made a special strategy to keep their MLAs united.
Mathematics of votes in favor of candidates
Baidyanath Ram
JMM candidate Baidyanath Ram enjoys strong support from the party and allies in the assembly. If he gets the expected votes of JMM and the alliance, he can easily cross the mark of 28 votes. The additional votes left after his victory may go in favor of the Congress candidate.
Pranav Jha
The victory of Congress candidate Pranab Jha completely depends on the unity of INDIA alliance. If all the 56 MLAs of the Grand Alliance vote as per the decided strategy, then the remaining votes after the victory of Baidyanath Ram can give the second seat to Pranab Jha.
Parimal Nathwani
BJP-backed independent candidate Parimal Nathwani has the support of 24 NDA MLAs. He will need at least four additional votes to win. In such a situation, their hopes rest on the changing equations of cross voting or preference votes.
fortification of both camps
Before the elections, both INDIA alliance and NDA made special arrangements to keep their respective MLAs united. The Grand Alliance, led by Chief Minister Hemant Soren, held frequent meetings and also conducted mock polls to inform the new MLAs about the voting process. Whereas NDA accommodated its MLAs in a hotel in Ranchi and trained them on the voting process. In the presence of BJP leaders, the MLAs were given detailed information about the voting rules so that no vote is invalid.
The picture will be clear by evening
Voting for the Rajya Sabha elections began at 9 am and will continue till 4 pm. After voting the report will be sent to the Election Commission. After getting the permission of the Commission, counting of votes will start at around 5 pm. Political experts believe that this election will not only decide the two Rajya Sabha seats, but will also indicate the strength of alliances in Jharkhand, the loyalty of the MLAs and the future political direction.
